Describing the Probability of Events

1. Certain Event:
o Probability = 1 (or 100%).
o The event is guaranteed to happen.
o Example: The probability of rolling a number less than 7 on a standard
die.
2. Impossible Event:
o Probability = 0 (or 0%).
o The event cannot happen.
o Example: The probability of rolling an 8 on a standard six-sided die.
3. Likely Event:
o Probability > 0.5 (greater than 50%).
o The event is more likely to occur than not.
o Example: The probability of getting heads or tails when flipping a fair coin
(each = 50%, total = 100%).
4. Unlikely Event:
o Probability < 0.5 (less than 50%).
o The event is less likely to occur than not.
o Example: The probability of rolling a 6 on a standard six-sided die (1/6
or ~16.67%).
5. Equally Likely Event:
o Probability = 0.5 (or 50%).
o The event has an equal chance of occurring or not occurring.
o Example: The probability of getting heads when flipping a fair coin.
6. Highly Likely Event:
o Probability close to 1 but not exactly 1.
o The event is almost certain to occur.
o Example: The probability of choosing a red ball from a bag with 99 red
balls and 1 blue ball.
7. Highly Unlikely Event:
o Probability close to 0 but not exactly 0.
o The event is very unlikely to occur.
o Example: The probability of winning a lottery with 1 in a million odds.
Probabilistic Descriptions in Words

1. Certain: Event will definitely happen (100%).

2. Almost Certain: Event is nearly guaranteed to happen (90%-99%).
3. Very Likely: Event has a strong chance of happening (75%-89%).
4. Likely: Event has a good chance of happening (50%-74%).
5. As Likely as Not: Event is equally probable to happen or not (exactly 50%).
6. Unlikely: Event has a small chance of happening (25%-49%).
7. Very Unlikely: Event has a very small chance of happening (1%-24%).
8. Almost Impossible: Event is extremely rare (less than 1%).
9. Impossible: Event cannot happen (0%).

Numerical Descriptions of Probability

• 0: Impossible Event
• 0 < Probability < 0.5: Unlikely Event
• 0.5: Equally Likely Event
• 0.5 < Probability < 1: Likely Event
• 1: Certain Event

General Terms:
1. Experiment: A procedure that produces outcomes.
2. Outcome: A possible result of an experiment.
3. Sample Space (S): The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
4. Event: A subset of the sample space; a collection of outcomes.
5. Probability: A measure of the likelihood of an event, ranging from 0 to 1.
6. Random Experiment: An experiment where the outcomes are unpredictable.
7. Trial: A single execution of an experiment.
Types of Events:
1. Simple Event: An event with a single outcome.
2. Compound Event: An event with multiple outcomes.
3. Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that cannot occur simultaneously.
4. Independent Events: Events where the occurrence of one does not affect the
occurrence of another.
5. Dependent Events: Events where the occurrence of one affects the
occurrence of another.
6. Exhaustive Events: Events that cover the entire sample space.
7. Complementary Events: Events that are mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive.
8. Certain Event: An event that is guaranteed to occur (probability = 1).
9. Impossible Event: An event that cannot occur (probability = 0).

Mathematical Concepts:
1. Theoretical Probability: Based on reasoning or analysis;
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

2. Experimental Probability: Based on observations or experiments;

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠

3. Conditional Probability: Probability of an event given that another event has

occurred;
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

4. Joint Probability: Probability of two events occurring together;

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

5. Marginal Probability: Probability of a single event occurring, regardless of

other events.
Formulas and Rules:
1. Addition Rule:
o For mutually exclusive events:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

o For non-mutually exclusive events:

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)

2. Multiplication Rule:
o For independent events:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)
o For dependent events:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵 ∣ 𝐴)

3. Bayes' Theorem: A way to find P(A∣B) using P(B∣A):

P(A ∣ B) = P(B ∣ A)
P(B ∣ A)P(A)
P( A ∣ B ) =
P(B)
Distributions:
1. Probability Distribution: A function that gives the probabilities of all possible
outcomes.
2. Discrete Probability Distribution: For discrete random variables (e.g.,
binomial, Poisson distributions).
3. Continuous Probability Distribution: For continuous random variables (e.g.,
normal, exponential distributions).

Random Variables:
1. Random Variable: A variable that takes on values based on outcomes of a
random experiment.
2. Discrete Random Variable: Takes on countable values.
3. Continuous Random Variable: Takes on any value in a range.
Miscellaneous:
1. Expected Value (E): The average or mean value of a random variable.
2. Variance (Var): The measure of dispersion of a random variable.
3. Standard Deviation: The square root of variance.
4. Law of Large Numbers: As the number of trials increases, the experimental
probability approaches the theoretical probability.
5. Central Limit Theorem: The distribution of sample means approximates a
normal distribution as the sample size grows.
6. Permutations: Arrangements of objects where order matters.
7. Combinations: Selections of objects where order does not matter.