8 Fundamental Counting Rules

• Sum Rule
• Product Rule
• Factorial Notation
• Permutation
• Permutation with Repeated Elements
• Circular Permutations
• Combination
• Combinations of different things taken any
number at a time
Combination

• A combination is a grouping or selection of all or

part of a number of things (or objects) without
reference to the arrangement of the things
selected.
Combination of different things taken any
number at a time.
• The total number of combinations Cn of n
different things taken 1, 2, 3, …, n at a time is

Cn = - 1
Sample Space

• An outcome is the result of a single trial of a probability

experiment, while a sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
We can also represent the sample space using a Venn
diagram or tree diagram. A Venn diagram a picture that
deficits all possible outcomes for an experiment, while tree
diagram is a device consisting of line segments emanating
from a starting point and in its outcome point and it
determines all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space
Toss a coin once Head, Tail S = { Head, Tail}
Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S = { HH, HT,
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 TH, TT}
Exam Result Pass, Fail S = { 1, 2, 3, 4,
Game Result Win, Lose 5, 6}
S = {Pass, Fail}
S = { Win, Lose}
Example Determine the sample space for rolling
1: two dice.
Die 2
Die 1 2 3 4 5 6
1

1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)

2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6,2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
Example Determine the sample space for the three True
2: or False quiz. Use tree diagram to represent the
sample space.
Simple and Compound Events
• An event is a collection of one or more outcomes of an
experiment, it maybe a simple event or a compound
event.

Simple Event – is an event that includes one and only

one of the outcomes for an experiment and is denoted by
E, it is also called as elementary event.

Compound Event – is a collection of more than one

outcome for an experiment; it is also called composite
event.
Example:
• In a group of Catholic Christian, some are in favor of death penalty
as major punishment for heinous crimes and other are against it.
Three persons are selected at random and asked whether they are
in favor of or against death penalty. How many distinct outcomes
are possible? List all outcomes included in each of the following
events and mention whether they are simple or compound events?

a. All three persons are in favor of death penalty.

b. At least one person is in favor of death penalty.
c. Exactly one person is against of death penalty.
Solution:
Let F = a person is in favor of death penalty as major punishment
for heinous crimes.
A = a person is against death penalty as major punishment for
heinous crimes.
a. All three persons are in favor of death penalty
= { FFF }
b. At least one person is in favor of death penalty
= { FFA, AFA, AAF, FFA, FAF, AFF, FFF }
c. Exactly one person is against death penalty
= { FFA, FAF, AFF }
Probability

• Is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a

specific event will occur. An event that cannot occur
has zero probability which is called an impossible
event and if an event that is certain to occur has a
probability equal to 1 which is called sure event.
There are four basic probability rules that will be
helpful in solving probability problems.

a. The probability of an event is within the range of

0 to 1.

b. The sum of probabilities of all simple events for

0≤P(E)≤1.

an experiment is always 1.
ΣP() = P() + P() + P() +… = 1
c. If an event cannot occur, its probability is 0.
d. If an event is certain, then the probability is 1.
Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

• Classical Probability. Classical probability

assumes that all outcomes in the sample space
are equally likely to occur.
Number of outcomes in E
= n(E)
P(E) = Total number of outcomes in the sample space
n(S)
Example:

• A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find

these probabilities (a) of getting king hearts, (b) of
getting a spade, (c) of getting a 5 or a clubs (d) of
getting a 5 or a 7, (e) of getting a card which is not
a spade, (f) of getting 11 of clubs.c
• Empirical Probability. Empirical probability is
the type of probability that uses frequency
distribution based on observations to determine
numerical probabilities events.

frequency for the class

=f
P(E) = Total frequencies of the distribution n
Example:

• In a sample of 50 college students, 18 are

freshmen, 23 are sophomore, 2 are junior, 7 are
senior. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.

a. A student is a freshman.
b. A student is a freshman or a sophomore.
c. A student is a neither a freshman nor a junior.
d. A student is not a senior.
The addition Rules and
Multiplication Rules for
Probability
A. Independent, Dependent, Mutually
Exclusive Events
• Two events A and B are independent events
in the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.

• Two events A and B are dependents events

for which the outcome or occurrence of event A
affects the outcome or occurrence of event B in
such a way that the probability is changed.

• Two events A and B are mutually exclusive

events if they cannot occur at the same time.
B. Addition Rules for Probability

Rule 1: When two events A and B are mutually

exclusive, the probability that A and B will occur is
P(A P(B
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ) )
P(S) = 1

Rule 2: If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

P(S) = 1 P(A) P(A)
Example:

• A box contains 4 red marbles, 8 blue marbles,

and 7 green marbles. If a person selects a
marble at random, find the probability that is
either a red or green marble.
Example:

• A single card in drawn from an ordinary deck of

card. Find the probability that it is a queen or a
diamonds.
Example:

• In a certain insurance company there are 20

senior salespersons and 30 junior salespersons;
8 senior and 14 junior salespersons are males.
If a salesperson is selected, find the probability
that the salesperson is a senior or a female.
C. Multiplication Rules for Probability
- The multiplication rules can be applied to
determine the probability of two or more events
that occur in sequence. The probability of the
intersection of two events is called their joint
probability. It is written as P(A and B). These
rules are for independent or dependent events.

Rule 1: When two events are independent, the

probability of both occurring is

P(A and B) = P(A) ⋅ P(B)

Rule 2: When two events are dependent, the
probability of both occurring is

P(A and B) = P(A) ⋅ P(A | B)

Rule 3: When two events are mutually exclusive

their joint probability is always zero. If A and B
are two mutually exclusive events, the

P(A and B) = 0
Example:
• A die is rolled and a coin is flipped. Find the
probability of getting a 5 on the die and tail on
the coin.
Example:
• A box contains 3 red balls, 8 blue balls, and 9
green balls. A first ball is selected, and then it is
replaced. A second ball is selected. Find the
probability of selecting: (a) 2 red balls, (b) 1
blue ball and then 1 green ball.
Example:
• A SJS survey found that one out of 5 Filipinos
say they are in favor of the death penalty for
heinous crimes. If the people are selected at
random. Find the probability that all three will
say that they are in favor of death penalty.
Example:
• Reina owns a collection of 25 bags, of which 6
are made by guess. If the two bags are selected
at random, find the probability that both are
made by guess.
Marginal and Conditional
Probabilities
Marginal Probability
- Marginal probability is a probability of a single
event without consideration of any other event;
it is also called single probability. It can be
computed using the formula

P(A) = P(A and ) + P(A and ) + … + P(A and

Where are k mutually exclusive and collectively

exhaustive events.
Conditional Probability
- Conditional probability is the probability that an
event will occur given that another event has
already occurred. If A and B are two events, then
the conditional probability is given as P(A | B)
and reads as “the probability of A given that B
has already occurred.” In symbol,

and

given that P(B) ≠ 0 and P(A) ≠ 0.

Example:

• A box contains blue and red balls. A person selects two

balls without replacement. If the probability of selecting
a blue ball and a red ball is 12/30, and the probability of
selecting a blue ball on the first draw is 3/5, find the
probability of selecting a red ball on the second draw,
given that the first ball selected was a blue ball.
Example:
• In a fast food chain, 75% of the customers
orders chicken meal. If 40% of the customers
orders chicken meal and sundae, find the
probability that the customer orders chicken
meal will also order a sundae.
Example:
• A survey conducted by WSS asked 250 whether or not they have shopped on
the new Shopping Mall. The following table gives the two-way classification of
the responses.

Gender Have Shopped Have Never Total

Shopped
Male 20 70 90
Female 130 30 160
Total 150 100 250

Suppose one person is selected at random from these 250 persons. Find the
following probabilities.
a. The respondent answered has shopped, given that the respondent is a male.
b. The respondent is a female, given that the respondent answered has never
shopped.
Random Variables and
Discrete Probability
Distribution
Frequency and Relative Frequency
Distributions of the Number of TVs owned
by City of Manila Families
Number of Frequency Relative
TVs Owned Frequency
0 34 34/500 = 0.068
1 316 316/500 =
2 132 0.632
3 18 132/500 =
0.264
18/500 = 0.036
N = 500 Sum = 1.000
A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random
variable can assume and the corresponding probabilities of the values.
The probabilities are determined theoretically or by observation.

1. 0 ≤ P(X) ≤ 1, for all ( The probability outcome is between 0 and 1).

2. ( The sum of all possible outcomes is 1.0).
3. The listing is exhaustive (all possible outcomes are included).
4. The outcomes are mutually exclusive (The outcomes cannot occur at
the same time).
Example:

• Construct a probability distribution for rolling a

die.
Example:

• Construct a probability distribution for tossing

three coins. Let X represents the number of tails.
Example:

• A wallet containing four 100 peso bills, two 200 peso

bills, three 500 peso bills, and one 1,000 peso bill.
Construct a probability distribution for the data.
Mean Variance, Standard Deviation,
and Mathematical Expectation
A.The Mean of a Probability Distribution
The mean of a random variable with a discrete
probability distribution is

μ = P() + P() + P(+ … + P(= X P(X)]

where , , ,… = the outcomes.

P(), P(, P(,…P( = the corresponding probabilities.
(X)] = means to sum the products.
B. Variance and Standard Deviation of a
Probability Distribution
The variance of a random variable with a discrete
probability distribution is

= P(X)] -

The standard deviation of a random variable with a discrete

probability distribution is

σ= or σ=
C. Expected Value
The expected value of a discrete random variable of a
probability distribution is the theoretical average of the
variable. The formula is

μ = E(X) = (X)]

The symbol E(X) is used for the expected value.