I wanted to share the most complete data I'm aware of to gauge potential inflationary effects of proposed Mexico, Canada, and China tariffs. What I've done is merge in data on domestic production, total imports, trade margins [think retailer and wholesaler markups], transportation costs, taxes & duties less subsidies, and purchaser prices from the Bureau of Economic Analysis 2023 Supply Table (71-industries) and then merged in Canadian, Chinese, and Mexican import data from the Census Bureau. For simplicity, I'm assuming a 25% across the board tariff on all three countries (note, I know the proposed expansion of tariffs on Chinese goods was just 10%, so keep in mind). Thoughts: â¢In the 4th column of data, we see the percentage of imports for each commodity type Canada, China, and Mexico account for. For example, 68% of oil & gas imports come from these three countries (Canada leading the way), 62% of electrical equipment (NAICS 335), etc. â¢To arrive at the percentage increase in purchaser prices, I multiply the Imports column by the Canadian & Chinese & Mexican percentage of imports column and then multiply by 0.25 (for the 25% tariff). I take this product and divide it by the purchaser prices column to arrive at the tariff shock estimate (last column). Across all goods, this number is 1.9%; the same figure applies for manufactured goods alone. The number ranges as high as 5.1% for electrical equipment to < 1%. â¢One thing to note: I'm not accounting for any cost pass-through dynamics in the supply chain (e.g., Canadian crude oil becomes more expensive means Midwest refiners increase prices to pass along higher costs). â¢I'm also assuming the trade margins (which are very substantial, especially for categories like apparel where they are much larger than the value of domestic production + imports) don't change. I don't see this as realistic, as sellers need to protect gross margin rates. This assumption likely counterbalances any over-estimate from the 25% tariff assumption. Implication: You can't look at these data and say that the Canada, China, and Mexican tariffs being floated won't be inflationary as it pertains to goods. My analysis gives possibly the most complete picture I've yet seen. #supplychain #shipsandshipping #economics #markets #freight
Cost Reduction Techniques
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Negotiation tactics we used to decrease our SaaS spend by 30% in the last year: Itâs amazing to me how much room there is in SaaS pricing. The price is not the price is not the price. You can always negotiate, and there are often loopholes that can save you a ton of money. Here are some of them: - Cancel the renewal before the negotiation. We send cancellation notices to our biggest opportunity negotiations months in advance, and tell them that we will only renew upon having a new deal. Often, account reps can provide special discounts for âat riskâ clients. - Get your usage data. We always dig through our data before a negotiation. If our usage is lower than expected, we use that as leverage. For example, our hiring has gone down by about 60% post-ZIRP, but we still paid the same annual price for our applicant tracking system. We showed them the data and made it clear the software wasnât worth what we were paying. - Be nice. Honestly, sometimes I get frustrated because I know Iâm getting the runaround. Every time I do, it backfires. When Iâm on my A-game, Iâm nice - I tell them I love their software, it is useful, but we just donât have as much of a need right now. Itâs not you, itâs me. I do tell the truth, though, so they know Iâm genuine with my praise and critiques. - Compare their costs to other options. There are 3 different types of comparisons: 1) direct competitors. Just call them and get a quote. 2) indirect competitors. Oftentimes another company offers a âbasicâ version of the software youâre using, so you can use that as leverage: âwe donât need an applicant tracking system because we already pay for Notionâ. 3) budget competitors. Compare the pricing of x subscription with y subscription. We regularly compare unrelated products and say: you are the 2nd highest cost product we use, even though you arenât the 2nd most valuable to us. - Ask 3x. You almost always have to negotiate at least three times to get the best deal. It doesnât work with every company, but most account reps have latitude and at some point youâre not worth their time. Take advantage and just make sure you press multiple times in a row instead of taking the first offer. Iâm surprised at how often we get our way in these negotiations. Sometimes I step in as the founder, but now my team has watched this playbook and gets the same results on their own. You donât need to be a founder or a business unit leader to do this: act like an owner and make sure your company isnât wasting money!
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$250k/mo burn. 3 months runway left. No VC cash. "You don't need a miracle, you need a plan". That's what I told a startup founder who hired me as a CFO. Runway increased from 3 to 9 months. Here is how: â¶ï¸ The crisis: ⢠Baseline burn: $250k/month ⢠Cash in bank: $750k â 3 months of runway ⢠No VC lifeline: out of question for now. ⢠Goal: buy time to hit 6+ months runway and qualify for non-dilutive capital. ⢠Acknowledging that this situation is a failure in terms of planning. â¶ï¸ The playbook: 4 levers to pull We attacked burn from all angles: cost cuts, cash flow optimization, revenue acceleration, and non-dilutive financing. 1. Cost reduction: saved $80k/month Why? Fixed costs are the easiest to control quickly. Tactics: ⢠Cloud infrastructure (savings: $25k/month): => Renegotiated AWS commit discounts (locked in 3-year terms for 40% savings). ⢠Software stack (savings: $15k/month): => Audited 35 tools. Cut duplicate/redundant apps. => Demanded 20% discounts from vendors by threatening cancellations (yes, dirty). ⢠Team restructuring (savings: $40k/month): => Reduced headcount by 12% (underperforming roles). => Shifted to contractors in lower-cost regions. => Paused all non-critical hires. 2. Better payment terms: unlocked $20k/month in cash flow Why? Stretch payables without damaging relationships. Tactics: ⢠Vendor negotiations: => Extended Net-30 to Net-60 terms with 4 key vendors. ⢠Customer Collections: => Hired a part-time collections specialist to chase late payments (>30 days). 3. Faster sales cycles: added $20k/month in Revenue Why? Speed = cash. Tactics: â¢Removed friction: => Cut demo steps from 3 calls to 1. => Launched a self-service âStart Nowâ plan (no sales call, 14-day trial). ⢠Upsold existing customers: => Targeted inactive users with a âreactivationâ campaign (12% converted to paid add-ons). 4. Non-dilutive financing: added $300k in Cash Why? Buy runway without giving up equity. Tactics: ⢠Revenue-based financing: => Secured $200k at 8% fee (repay 5% of monthly revenue until 1.4x repaid). ⢠AR factoring: => Sold $100k of outstanding invoices (90% advance rate, 3% fee). â¶ï¸ Results ⢠New monthly burn: $130k/month (48% reduction). ⢠Cash balance after 3 months: 750k(initial)â390k (3 months burn) + 300k(financing)=660k ⢠Extended Runway: 660k/130k = 5+ months â 9+ months with financing. â¶ï¸ Key takeaways for founders ⢠Cut fast, cut deep: Focus on high-impact fixed costs first (cloud, payroll, SaaS tools). ⢠Cash flow > Accounting profit: Stretch payables, pull forward receivables. ⢠Simplify to accelerate: Remove friction in sales, pricing, and onboarding. ⢠Get creative with financing: Revenue-based loans, prepayments, and AR factoring buy runway. You donât need a miracle â you need a plan. If youâre staring down a single-digit runway, DM me. Letâs fix this.
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An unacknowledged loop costs more than any front-facing glitch. ðð¢ðððð§ ððððð¨ð«ð¢ðð¬: Theyâre the invisible vampires of your organization, quietly draining time, resources, and budgets while youâre focused on the shiny, visible processes. On paper, everything looks greatâclear plans, detailed KPIs, and a confident team. Yet deadlines slip, and costs balloon. Why? Because beneath the surface, thereâs an uncharted underworld of rework, ad-hoc fixes, and undocumented processes keeping the ship afloat. This âhidden factoryâ might be a production operator manually fixing defects or a marketing coordinator managing spreadsheets because the CRM canât handle reality. Itâs work that doesnât show up in reports but shows up in your margins. ðð¡ð² ðð¨ðð¬ ðð¡ð¢ð¬ ð¦ððððð«? Armand Feigenbaum, the OG of Total Quality Control, nailed it: You canât fix what you donât measure. Hidden factories consume ðð-ðð% ð¨ð ðð§ ð¨ð«ð ðð§ð¢ð³ððð¢ð¨ð§âð¬ ððð©ððð¢ðð² and can be the difference between thriving and surviving. ð ðð«ðððð¢ððð¥ ðð®ð ð ðð¬ðð¢ð¨ð§ð¬ ðð¨ ðð±ð©ð¨ð¬ð ðð§ð ðððð®ðð ð ðð¢ðððð§ ð ðððð¨ð«ð²: ð) ðð¬ð ðð¦ðð«ð ðððð«ð¢ðð¬: Track hidden work with tools like MES and advanced KPIs (e.g., DPMO). ð) ðð¢ð¬ððð§ ðð¨ ðð¦ð©ð¥ð¨ð²ððð¬: Create systems to capture frontline feedback and reward solutions. ð) ððð«ððð¦ð¥ð¢ð§ð ðð«ð¨ððð¬ð¬ðð¬: Map workflows, eliminate waste, and simplify handoffs. ð) ðð ðð«ð¨ðððð¢ð¯ð: Use predictive tools and preventative maintenance to avoid surprises. ð) ðð«ðð¢ð§ ðð¨ð§ðð¢ð§ð®ð¨ð®ð¬ð¥ð²: Teach Lean and Six Sigma to empower a culture of improvement. ð ð¨ð« ð ðððð©ðð« ðð¢ð¯ð: https://lnkd.in/ehy-XhAr ******************************************* ⢠Visit www.jeffwinterinsights.com for access to all my content and to stay current on Industry 4.0 and other cool tech trends ⢠Ring the ð for notifications!
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Layoffs cost 10X to 100X more than they save, but HRâs data only covers compensation, so business leaders only see savings. I use data to talk at least one CEO out of layoffs every month. Hereâs how to protect your team from the chopping block. Quantify the Loss: The most common mistake is making the case with the value the team has created and the projects it has delivered. CEOs think about future value, not past gains, when making layoff decisions. What projects wonât deliver and how much revenue will be lost? CEOs need growth now more than ever. Build the case with data that quantifies the forward-looking value on the teamâs product roadmap. Emphasize This Yearâs Losses: Your CEO is being told that after an initial cost in the next 1-2 quarters, the business will see higher margins. Quantify this yearâs lost revenue in big, bold terms. Showcase how internal efficiency initiatives will save the company more than the team costs. What external teams will miss their goals? Everyone advocates for themselves, so youâll stand out by getting other leaders to add their voices. Use external teamsâ KPIs and connect them to top-level strategic goals. Reduce Costs Without Reducing Headcount: Take high-cost, low or uncertain returning projects off the roadmap. Optimize hardware and cloud utilization. Push out tool and infrastructure purchases. Consolidate and put pressure on vendors to offer discounts. I frame this as, âI canât reduce the staffing budget, but here are other areas where I can provide similar savings this year.â Instead of saying âNo,â give your CEO alternatives and new options. Focus on informing vs. convincing. Every companyâs CEO and CFO are taking a hard look at the technology budget, and layoffs are being discussed quarterly. Be proactive. Assume itâs coming and prepare the case now. Your team and career will be better off if you do.
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10 Strategic Cash Flow Mistakes and How to Fix Them. ------- ðIf you liked this post, youâll love the strategic finance insights I publish weekly in my free newsletter. ðSign up here: https://bit.ly/4300Di8 ------- If you're making these, your organization and career might be at risk. 1ï¸â£ Mismatching Cash Flow Maturities â³ Utilizing short-term financing for long-term assets will lead to liquidity challenges. â³ Match up the cash flows on the assets being financed with cash flows on the debt 2ï¸â£ Ignoring Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility â³ Trading in multiple foreign currencies can quickly erode profitability, liquidity, and leverage. â³ Design an active FX management strategy (forwards, options, etc) to safeguard against the adverse effects of currency fluctuations. 3ï¸â£ Ignoring Interest Rate Volatility â³ Ignoring interest rate volatility can impact financing costs and cash flow predictability â³ Develop an appropriate financing strategy to manage exposures (swaps, options, etc) and protect cash flows. 4ï¸â£ Misinterpreting Negative Operating Cash Flows â³ Negative operating cash flows aren't a negative sign unless they're due to underlying financial distress â³ Secure suitable working capital financing and avoid overtrading 5ï¸â£ Relying on One-Time Positive Investing Cash Flows â³ Selling non-redundant assets to fund ongoing operating deficits can hide structural challenges â³ Resolve underlying profitability issues early and seek sustainable financing solutions 6ï¸â£ No Growth Working Capital â³ Failing to adequately finance growth working capital can slow expansions and deplete cash reserves â³ Negotiate suitable working capital financing to fund current asset growth 7ï¸â£ Mismanaging Payment Terms â³ Misaligning terms between suppliers and customers can lead to cash flow shortfalls and liquidity issues â³ Negotiate terms that complement your cash flow cycle and secure backup financing 8ï¸â£ Failing to Leverage Cash Management Tools â³ Manual cash management exposes organizations to errors and suboptimal cash positions â³ Integrate modern cash flow management tools including automated receivables and payables for improved cash flow visibility and control 9ï¸â£ Neglecting Cash Flow Forecasting â³ Lack of comprehensive cash flow forecasting will prevent opportunities and introduce undue risk, threatening business viability â³ Use both short term rolling & long term cash flow forecasts ð Ignoring Long-Term Strategic Implications of Cash Flow Decisions â³ Short-term cash management decisions significantly diminish growth â³ Balance immediate liquidity with long-term vision to align day-to-day needs with long term goals ---- â¶Get my on-demand video course with 5* reviews: The Cash Flow Masterclass: https://bit.ly/3NZJvSO â Follow me for strategic finance, business, and cash flow insights ðGrab my viral finance cheat sheet pack: https://bit.ly/3T3CtPm â» ðð¢ð¤ð, ðð¨ð¦ð¦ðð§ð, ððð©ð¨ð¬ð to share with your network â»
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What gets measured gets managed. If you don't know what to measure, you don't know what to manage. This is one of my trackers for managing operating and financial drivers, KPIs and metrics. Here's what it does: Let's assume you have a $50 million company that's realizing 28% gross margins (revenue less direct costs). This means you're making $14 million in gross profit. But you think you can do better. Examining the business, you observe 4 problems with direct costs: 1â£Â Problematic suppliers The companies is finding it difficult to manage uncertainty around the operations of its 20 overseas suppliers. The unreliable supply chain led to substantial delays and unexpected costs. To mitigate this, the company has decided to reduce the number of suppliers to 11 to ensure tighter control and more reliable operations. If the company can reduce complexity in its overseas supply chain, it may realize up to $353K in incremental profit. 2â£Â High variable costs / low contribution margin Inflation has led to skyrocketing material costs. Last-minute orders have led to higher material and freight costs. If the company can purchase in bulk and plan further in advance, variable costs can decline. This would lead to an estimated increase of contribution margin from 38% to 40% and incremental profit of $1.9 million. 3â£Â Manufacturing inefficiency Dated machinery and suboptimal scheduling has led to manufacturing inefficiency, worse that what it was in prior years. If the company can manage its manufacturing inefficiency from 13% to 8%, it can realize $616K in incremental profit. 4⣠High rate of error The company has been dealing with quality control issues. Continuous complaints from customers about product quality have been traced back to inferior components. If the company can address its quality issues from 10% to 2%, it can realize $616K in incremental profit. --------------- Weighting the drivers and KPIs: Through an operational restructuring and process improvement, we believe we can bring an additional $3.525 million in profit (bringing margin up to 35% from 28%). But not all drivers are equal. This is how we weighted the impact of each initiative. 1â£Â Problematic suppliers - 10% 2â£Â High variable costs - 55% 3â£Â Manufacturing inefficiency - 17.5% 4⣠High rate of error - 17.5% Therefore, improvements in direct variable costs are expected to bring the greatest benefit to profit, more than 3x as much as improving manufacturing inefficiency or errors and more than 5x as much as reducing the supplier base. What's this mean? If you're going to improve your company's financial position, you need to understand the strategic mapping and financial drivers. And you need to know which drivers move the needle the most. If you want to learn more about strategic financial mapping: https://lnkd.in/eRPRJf8N What questions do you have? #seidmanfinancial
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Are you struggling to make money in your business? One of the fastest ways to turn the corner is to cut costs. Here are 7 ways to cut costs: 1) Conduct a cost audit The word audit makes chills go up my back. Going through an audit stinks. But this is a different type of audit. Do a thorough review of your expenses to identify areas where you can reduce costs without too much impact on the business. 1. Pull 12 months of transactions 2. Label them: - Fixed or variable - Essential or non-essential 3. Identify subscriptions or recurring charges 4. Group them into 3 buckets: cut, review, or keep 2) Optimize operational efficiencies Easy to say right? Do these 3 things: 1. Incentivize your staff 2. Bring in an outside expert in automation and/or processes 3. Create a process flow diagram for your major processes and look for areas of improvement Work with your team on the review items to decide which to cut. 3) Adjust employee authorizations Revisit who youâve authorized to do what and spot-check employee spending. This keeps employees accountable. Yes, give employees authorization to make decisions, but only when you have the proper structures in place. 4) Outsource Non-Core Activities You canât be an expert in everything. Outsource activities like accounting, IT, marketing, and HR. Each requires immersion to become great, so let the pros handle it. 5) Re-negotiate contracts Build a relationship and understand the other businesses' needs. Share yours as well, then look for areas of mutual benefit. Just asking âwe need to lower cost by 10%; how can we make that happen?â can open up the floodgates. 6) Leverage technology Consider what can be: 1. automated 2. move to the cloud 3. made more efficient Tech can be expensive up front, but often youâre saving in time or error reduction. Donât pinch pennies while your team spends hours weekly on workarounds. 7) Setup a regular review Regularly reviewing costs, softwares, and processes is a great way to stay on top of your costs. This creates a culture of accountability. This often slips when people get busy, so make sure itâs a priority and stays on the schedule. Cost-cutting should be a temporary thing. A constant focus on cutting cost is going to sow doubt among your team. Cost reduction is a great first lever, but it should never be the only measure. Thank you for reading! This was originally in my newsletter, where I share business finance tips for 40k SMB owners each week. Subscribe here: https://lnkd.in/gVigaTwi
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ðð ð©ðð²ð¬ ðð¨ ðð ð ðð®ð¬ðð¨ð¦ðð« ð¨ð ðð¡ð¨ð¢ðð! ð¾ððð ððð ðððð ðð ð âðððððððð ðð ððððððâ, ððððððð? ð¶ In my quest for info last week w/ my supplier peeps, I learned some have formal âcustomer of choiceâ programs, and some donât. ð¶Anywho, being a âcustomer of choiceâ means youâve got âeliteâ status with your supplier, which can come with benefits. Everyone likes benefits, right!? ððð«ðâð¬ ð¬ð¨ð¦ð ðð¨ð¦ð¦ð¨ð§ "ðð®ð¬ðð¨ð¦ðð« ð¨ð ðð¡ð¨ð¢ðð" ððð§ððð¢ðð¬: ð Thought leadership. ð Market Intelligence. ð Prioritized capacity\ supply. ð Access to their âA-teamâ personnel. ð Preferred pricing, better commercial terms. ð Right-of-first refusal on innovation, Joint R&D, quicker GTM. *ðµð ð ð¢ðð ð¡ð ð ðððððð¡ ð¦ðð¢ð ð ð¢ðððððð ððððð ðððð ð¡. ðâððð ðð¢ð ð¡ðððð ðð ðâðððð ððððððð¡ð ððð ðððââ-ððð§ððð, ð¼ ð¤ðð¢ððð'ð¡ ððððð ð ððððð¦ ðð¥ðððð¡ ð¡âðð ðððð ð¡ðððð ððð¡ððððð-ð¡ð¦ðð ððððð¡ðððð âððð . (ð´ðð¡âðð¢ðâ ðð¡'ð ð ððððð¡ ð¤ðð¦ ððð ð ð¢ððððððð ð¡ð "ððð£ðð-ð¢ð" ð¡âððð ðððð.) ððð¥ððð¢ð¨ð§ð¬ð¡ð¢ð©ð¬ ðð«ð ð ð-ð°ðð² ð¬ðð«ððð, ð«ð¢ð ð¡ð? ð ð¨ð« ð²ð¨ð®ð« ð¬ðð«ðððð ð¢ð ðð¥ð¥ð¢ðð§ðð ð¬ð®ð©ð©ð¥ð¢ðð«ð¬ ð¬ð©ððð¢ðð¢ððð¥ð¥ð², ð¡ðð«ð'ð¬ ð¬ð¨ð¦ð ðð¡ð¢ð§ð ð¬ ð²ð¨ð® ððð§ ðð¨ ðð¨ð« ðð¡ðð¦: â Ensure theyâre invited to participate in RFPs. âExplore longer contract terms where feasible. âChampion their ideas (ensuring you give them credit). âHost supplier days for them to showcase their capabilities. âProvide them with references to help them expand their business. âRecognize them publicly in the industry\ amongst their peer group. âGive them white glove service. Promote engagement with stakeholders & leaders across the organization. âTransparently share info and engage with them on: strategy, forecast data, biz dev plans, and news. âConsider allowing them to use your companyâs logo in marketing materials (with pre-approval of course, and if policy allows.) â Maybe they want to develop new capabilities, geographies, or markets. Be open to exploring those with them as an innovation & learning partner. ðð«ðð©ð©ð¢ð§ð ðð ðð© & ðð¡ð² ðð ðððððð«ð¬: â¶ Not all suppliers require the same treatment. Segmentation is important! â¶ Particularly with your strategic alliance suppliers, explore customer of choice benefits ð´ðð· ensure you're being a good partner in return. â¶ ð»ððð ðð ððð ððð ðððððð ð¹ð¬ð¨ð³ ð½ð¨ð³ð¼ð¬ ðð ðºððððððð ððððððððððððð. ð¢ ð£.ð¦. ðªðµð®ð ð¼ððµð²ð¿ ð°ð¼ð¼ð¹ ð°ðððð¼ðºð²ð¿ ð¼ð³ ð°ðµð¼ð¶ð°ð² ð¯ð²ð»ð²ð³ð¶ðð ðµð®ðð² ðð¼ð ðð²ð²ð»?
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9 out of 10 startups die because they run out of money from hiring too quickly. This is why having a big team isnât a flex and how founders should think about hiring in 2025 ðð¾ Our team at Chezie is super lean. - Just 2 full-timers (myself and Co-founder Dumebi Egbuna) - 2 contract developers - 1 PT contract designer - 1 PT admin support Our total capacity is equal to ~5 full-time roles. This team setup has supported our growth to $750k+ ARR, and weâre establishing systems to maintain this team size all the way to $ 1- 1.5 M. Meanwhile, I watch pre-seed companies with 15+ people and Series A startups employing 25+, wondering what they're thinking ð¤ Startup culture encourages founders to celebrate having big teams. Founders treat new hires like funding announcementsâthey broadcast them for everyone to see how âwellâ theyâre doing. But in reality, only two metrics truly count: happy customers and revenue. The best approach to recruiting is simple: hire when it hurts. That means: - The founding team is regularly pulling 12+ hour days - Your team shows clear signs of exhaustion and productivity declines as a result - Your company starts to miss things that previously werenât a problem (support tickets, sales follow-ups, etc.) Even if it hurts, hiring should be your last resort. Before looking to grow your team, consider: - Looking for freelancers and part-time specialists - Implementing software tools ($200/month is far cheaper than $100k/year for a new hire) - Incorporating AI and automation like @zapier to multiply your current teamâs productivity Your only goal as a founder is to stay alive, and you do that by minimizing costs. The simplest way to minimize costs is to hire thoughtfully and intentionally. Celebrate staying in business over expanding your team. How do you think about startup hiring? Share below in the comments!