Restaurant Market Growth

A friend opened a restaurant in Madrid – it’s called Akiro and it’s on track to breakeven 7 months after opening, unheard of for a restaurant. Talking with him last month, he says its success comes down to 3 things: 1. Foot traffic He scoped out the entire city to find the spots with the most foot traffic at both lunch and dinner time (they walk everywhere in Madrid). Then, it’s just a numbers game. How could he get a % of people who walk by to come in? They invested a premium to get an excellent location. 2. Product He said the product is much more than good food. That’s a bare minimum. Instead, he said to think of it as the whole experience. What’s the noise level? What music’s playing? How does the restaurant design enhance everything else? Also, he changes one menu item every week. Has a massive spreadsheet that tells him what’s being ordered, profit margins on each item, etc. He gets rid of the least popular thing, tries something else. Every. Single. Week. He says the menu is 10x better than it was when they opened. 3. Social proof They leave a QR code that goes to a Google review on the bottom of each check. 737 reviews, 4.9 stars. Also, remember the restaurant design thing? They've never paid for a TikTok or Instagram post, but they've earned more than 2 million impressions on those channels from customers taking videos and posting them. But it’s not only reviews and videos. I thought this was genius… The restaurant is designed so the line spills onto the street. And, every single day, there’s a line out the door at 2pm and 9pm. When you walk by and see a line, you think “Oh, that place must be good. I’ll check it out some time.” It’s fun to think about how each of these three ideas applies to every single business. 1. Get eyes on your products 2. Have great products and constantly improve them 3. Ask for case studies and other forms of social proof Now, 6 months after opening, he’s looking to expand in Barcelona. And he’s running the exact same playbook. *** I write about storytelling and building a writing business. Follow me Nathan Baugh for more like this. And if you wanna become a better storyteller, join 83,872 others getting 1 storytelling tip on Sunday morning. Hit the 'visit my website' button to join.

Restaurants and Food Brands should care about GLP-1s going generic. In the pharmaceutical world, a drug going off-patent is a predictable milestone. But when that drug is a blockbuster like a GLP-1, used for diabetes and, more recently, explosive weight loss, its patent expiration isn’t just a pharma story. It’s a food and beverage industry story. A big one. Here’s why: 𝟏. 𝐆𝐋𝐏-𝟏𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 Drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro suppress appetite and slow gastric emptying, leading to significant weight loss. People eat less. Some report losing interest in snacks, alcohol, or indulgent meals entirely. And there’s already evidence: restaurant foot traffic and high-calorie CPG sales are showing early signs of strain in high-usage regions. 𝟐. 𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐅𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐀𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐈𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 The GLP-1 patent cliff begins as early as 2026 for some leading formulations. Once generics hit the market, the cost of these drugs will drop significantly. That means millions more Americans could soon afford these medications, not just the affluent. This is a mainstream tipping point where a major change in dietary behavior, at population-level scale. 𝟑. 𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐍𝐨𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐅𝐨𝐨𝐝, 𝐈𝐭’𝐬 𝐃𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐅𝐨𝐨𝐝 According to Columbia Law’s analysis of GLP-1 IP expirations, we’re entering a period of democratized access and competitive innovation: oral versions, over-the-counter supplements, and food brands “built for the GLP-1 consumer” are on the horizon. Consumers on GLP-1s may not be interested in volume, but they are interested in: 🥩 High-protein, low-volume meals 🍊 Functional foods + hydration 🫕 Smaller portions + premium experiences 🥗 Nutrient density > calorie density 𝟒. 𝐀 𝐂𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭? For food manufacturers, new white space: it’s time to rethink product design. Imagine snacks built around satiety, blood sugar control, or micronutrient delivery. For restaurants, new white space: consider portioning, pricing, and menu strategy. Can you create a premium smaller-plate menu? A “GLP-1-friendly” tasting flight? A high-protein breakfast bowl for customers skipping lunch? GLP-1s going generic will likely trigger one of the biggest consumer behavior shifts in decades. If your business depends on people eating, now’s the time to adapt. Those that pivot fastest can claim the first-mover advantage. How are you and your brand(s) thinking about the impact of these GLP-1 drugs on your menu, marketing and overall brand positioning? #FoodIndustry #RestaurantInnovation #ConsumerTrends #HealthAndWellness #CPGTrends #GLP1 #FutureOfFood

Restaurant nerd time. I looked at fast-food chains using Technomic, Inc. data. Nearly half of the more than 500 quick-service chain restaurants lost sales last year. Only 37 could boast U.S. system sales growth of 25% or more, which qualifies them as growth chains. Of those 37, only 10 of them are center-of-plate concepts like burgers, sandwiches, chicken or bowls or whatever. The rest sell beverages, notably coffee, or desserts like ice cream or cookies. Why is that? Part of it is the way franchising works, where a lot of high-growth concepts come from simpler concepts that are easier for prospective franchisees to operate (and which can have really hard falls, as many of the lowest-growth concepts were also beverage or treat chains). But this is also where the consumer is going. They're eating fewer large meals and more smaller meals, which is fueling the growth of such concepts. More here: https://lnkd.in/gpbXEfcB

It’s a big day for SevenRooms – we’re launching our first-ever global restaurant industry trends report and sharing it so we can all get smarter, together! With insights from restaurant operators, SevenRooms platform data, and consumers worldwide, this report shares the latest market research on diner expectations and trending topics like AI, automation, marketing and loyalty. Here’s my perspective on the most impactful insights: 🧠 74% of operators are already using AI in some way to run their business. They’re primarily using it to process reservations, manage inventory and analyze data. Hospitality/Restaurants are early entrants to AI when historically we've been tech laggards. 📧 Personalized email marketing campaigns are driving outsized results for restaurants. Targeted emails see a 23% higher open rate and drive 2X more revenue than full-list sends. 💬 Text marketing is effective in reaching Gen Z Text marketing has a 98% open rate, and the majority of Gen Zers (41%) prefer to receive restaurant promotions via text. 💰 Reservations with prepaid upgrades and experiences average a 35% higher spend than those without. Guests willing to pay more for elevated experiences in advance spend more, and operators are cashing in. In 2023, SevenRooms operators generated significant revenue from upgrades: >$30M in the U.S., >£6M in the U.K. and >$20M in Australia.  This number has grown significantly already in 2024. 🥰 Restaurant-goers will go to great lengths to dine with the brands they love. If a guest in the U.S., U.K. and Australia can’t get a reservation at a particular spot, 31% look for a different date and time, while 32% will look for a different restaurant within the same hospitality group. The data shows that in this age of AI and automation, diners want greater connection and access to the brands they choose to patronize. To meet these needs, operators must leverage the right technology and data to execute strategies that enhance guest experiences, drive deeper connections, and foster loyalty. Take a look at the report, I’d love to hear what you think of the findings: https://lnkd.in/eRqdVjMU

Notes for your business from my day at Google. What Consumers Are Looking For When Visiting Your Google Business Profile Page When consumers search for dining options online, they are looking for more than just a quick answer. According to recent insights, a staggering 60% of queries have a navigational intent, meaning users want detailed, actionable information to guide their decision-making. To stand out and meet these expectations, your Google Business Profile needs to address specific consumer demands effectively. Here’s what users are actively seeking: • Wait Times: Up-to-date information on how long they might have to wait is crucial for users making spontaneous dining decisions. • Individual Dishes & Cuisines: People are searching for detailed menus and specific food offerings. Highlight your star dishes to appeal to this curiosity. • Ratings & Reviews (Snippets): Quick access to your reviews—especially those that mention standout features like service or food quality—helps consumers evaluate their options instantly. • Quality Metrics: This includes food taste, cleanliness, service (friendliness, speed, and efficiency). Transparency in this area can build trust. • Price & Deals: Value-conscious diners are eager to compare pricing and see deals that might tip their choice in your favor. • Parking & Location: Convenience factors such as nearby parking and exact locations play a major role, particularly for those unfamiliar with your area. • Hours of Operation: Outdated or incomplete operating hours can frustrate users. Keep this information current. • Ambience: Photos specific to your location showcasing the interior, outdoor seating, or unique décor can strongly influence perception. Interestingly, 40% of users take immediate action after finding the information they need, such as visiting the location or ordering for pickup. Meanwhile, 30% are looking for delivery options, underscoring the need for seamless integrations with delivery platforms. How Can Businesses Use This Data? To maximize engagement and drive foot traffic or online orders, restaurants and dining establishments should: • Regularly update their Google Business Profile to reflect accurate wait times, menus, and hours. • Respond promptly to reviews to demonstrate active customer engagement. • Use high-quality visuals to give potential customers a sense of your space and offerings. • Highlight promotions or exclusive deals in a way that catches users’ attention. Closing Thoughts: In a world where dining decisions are increasingly made online, providing comprehensive and precise information is no longer optional. By prioritizing user needs and delivering the insights they care about, you can turn searchers into diners. #google #googlerestaurantsummit #gbp #restaurantsuccess

QSR's like McDonald's and Wendy's blame soft sales on the economy. Suggesting high-income consumers are willing to spend more. But it is actually high-income consumers pulling back, possibly due to GLP-1s. Thomas Paulson and I are exploring the impact of GLP-1s on QSRs and here is what we have found so far: 2024 QSR Sales Compared to 2023 ↳ Sales of low-income and ethnic consumers are up. ↳ Sales of middle to low income rural segments way are up. ↳ Sales to average to upper income suburbia about the same. ↳ Sales for higher income segments are down. ↳ Sales for higher income, singles from ~ 25 - 45 are WAY down Its early in our research but what we could be seeing is that people who have the means (income) to buy GLP1s and the motivation (single) to do so are no longer making fast food trips in the way that they were. On the other hand for folks that cannot afford GLP1s this is not having any impact. If what we are finding is true this has a massive potential impact on QSR strategy. 🚫 All of the segments that are spending less on QSR are also the segments that have become extremely expensive to target.  ✅ All of the segments spending MORE on QSR and are "GLP1 Proof" are extremely under-targeted on advertising. Link to Thomas's article below. 👇

Not that this is anything new in the restaurant industry, but there are a handful of headwinds to start the year. I think we've seen enough data in recent months to tell us the way consumers are dining has changed. They're not really spending less necessarily, but the occasions are spreading out visits and there's fewer of them to go around. More channels to compete in. This look from Revenue Management Solutions below shows another drop in traffic and some survey trends. Such as: Late night growth. About 34 percent of consumers in RMS’ Q1 2025 survey increased late-night dine-in, and 70 percent are ordering delivery more often in those hours. Traffic is headed toward evening, too (this makes sense considering remote/hybrid work and the reality it's often easier to swap breakfast and lunch at home). Dinner reported a 0.5 percent bump. Breakfast traffic fell 12.6 percent, year-over-year. First Watch has talked about this in recent quarters. It's simply a meal cost-concerned customers traditionally replace or just get rid of altogether. RMS also feels brands may be playing into the decrease. Some franchised operators are allowing franchisees to skip the daypart (Taco Bell) if labor costs or declining traffic are prohibitive. Still, quick service appears to be winning the segment battle. According to the Q1 report, 24 percent of respondents visited QSRs more than the previous month, compared to just 14 percent who said they visited fast casuals more and 11 percent for full-service. When looking at generations, Gen Zers were bullish about QSRs, with 40 percent saying they visited more this month. 

🤔 Are Subbrands the Secret Weapon for Major Restaurant Chains to Stay Relevant? This year, we’ve been seeing a fascinating trend: major restaurant chains are spinning up entirely new restaurant concepts focused on beverages or specialized menus. But why? I think it comes down to four things. 1️⃣ Innovation Without Risking the Core Brand McDonald’s CosMc’s is a great example of testing the waters with a nostalgic, snack-focused concept. By separating this playful idea from the golden arches, McDonald’s can take risks with branding, menu items, and ambiance without diluting their global identity as the go-to spot for burgers and fries. 2️⃣ Capitalizing on the Beverage Occasion Taco Bell’s Live Más Café zeroes in on younger customers’ love for premium coffee and cold beverages, turning Taco Bell into a destination for social hangouts outside traditional mealtimes. It’s a smart way to compete with Starbucks and Dunkin’ while tapping into the growing popularity of the “third space” culture for Gen Z and Millennials. 3️⃣ Operational Efficiency Meets Growth KFC’s Saucy elevates chicken tenders by making the sauces the star. With a lineup of bold, crave-worthy flavors, Saucy differentiates itself in a crowded chicken market. The concept uses KFC’s existing supply chain and culinary expertise but targets a younger, sauce-loving audience with its streamlined focus. 4️⃣ Real Estate Innovation Makes Expansion Attractive Smalls Sliders, a spin-off of Walk-On’s Sports Bistreaux, uses a unique and cost-efficient real estate approach by building locations out of shipping containers they call “cans.” This modular design minimizes construction time and costs, while also creating a modern, visually distinctive space. The small footprint and efficient layout make it easier to secure high-traffic real estate, appealing to franchisees looking for a lower upfront investment. This isn’t just about creating spinoffs—it’s about future-proofing brands, attracting new audiences, and adapting to ever-changing consumer tastes. At Supper Co. we specialize in helping restaurant chains develop bold ideas like these. From conceptualization to execution, we work with brands to uncover innovative strategies that keep them competitive and connected to their customers. #FoodIndustry #BrandStrategy #Innovation #RestaurantMarketing

Joe Langteau’s recent Nation's Restaurant News article really spoke to me as I think about the restaurants here in Oklahoma that have stood the test of time, and why they have. And his formula related to the fundamentals of great guest service, strong teams and effective hiring, training, and treatment make sense: 1) “Outstanding guest service is the only long-term sustainable competitive advantage.” Sid’s Diner, Eischen’s, A Good Egg Dining Group, and some of our favorites all embody this. You can’t beat the best customer experience when it comes to building long-term customer loyalty and a solid reputation that will stand against market fluctuations. Because, the spots where you genuinely enjoy your experience every time will almost always have your heart and $$. 2) “Great teams build sales.” Whenever a server makes sure to help educate me on the menu, however simple it may be, it makes me feel welcome and comfortable enough to try out other things therefore compounding my check, ensuring an ever higher tip (15% is my go-to regardless), and gives me a reason to come back again and again. It’s so simple. 3) “Hire right, train right, treat right.” It’s something Jim repeats constantly - when you’re hiring, training, and treating the right people well, it’s the key to operational excellence. And the backbone of #EmployeeExperience and HEALTHY retention. You’d rather keep your good people over the toxic ones, right? Well, that happens when you treat them right. 4) “Adaptability and innovation enhance, but never replace, core values.” It’s like sales and marketing 101, find your why and never lose sight of it even while embracing new technology and dietary trends. A Good Egg Dining Group is a great example even of revamping core values to enhance them while maintaining the root of their why (and their long term success as a multi-concept group in a solid test market that is Oklahoma City). 5) “Culture is key… A strong, positive culture built on respect, inclusion, and shared purpose creates an environment where employees and guests alike feel valued.” Enough said. The restaurant and hospitality industry at its core is a people and human business. And to be successful long-term, you need to nourish & connect with them to create memorable experiences. Joe, what a phenomenal article to start my day with. Everyone else, you should check it out in the comments and in the meantime, here are some snapshots of the restaurants & food we love here in Oklahoma that emulate those top 5 qualities. #OperationalExcellence #ShopLocal #EatLocal #GuestExperience

I can’t stop thinking about this tiny restaurant in rural Montana. 259,000 followers. 84 million views. In just 1 year. Ember completely flipped the traditional hospitality playbook upside down and cracked the code of modern marketing. Instead of opening doors and hoping customers would come, they built an audience first. Their stats are mind-boggling: - 259k+ engages followers - 84M+ views - 22 reels with 1M+ views - Their best video hit 12+ million views - Even their worst post pulled 26,000 views With only 190 total posts, more than 1 out of every 10 videos they share cracks 1M+ views. But the journey wasn't an overnight success… It started with one chef who understood the power of an audience before revenue. Brandon Dearden spent 20 years climbing the culinary ladder through America's most competitive food scenes—Las Vegas, Chicago, LA, and San Francisco. But after reaching the executive chef position, he realized he wasn't fulfilled. So he went all-in on building his personal brand. For 40 days straight, he saw almost no traction. Most people would have quit. Dearden nearly did. But then he tried something completely different—an unpolished, authentic reaction video shot in a bathroom with poor lighting and a smudged camera. It went viral. The breakthrough taught him a crucial lesson: Authenticity beats perfection. He built his TikTok following to over 531k followers, earning recognition as the "CEO of ChefTok." Then came his boldest move yet—leaving Silicon Valley for Hamilton, Montana... Population 5,000. Most chefs would call this career suicide. Dearden saw opportunity. But he didn't just open a restaurant and then try to market it, he had a new strategy… He leveraged his existing audience, bringing them along for the entire journey of opening Ember. When the restaurant finally opened in March 2024, he had already built a community eagerly waiting to book tables. The restaurant's content strategy mirrors exactly what we're seeing work for hotels: - Behind-the-scenes glimpses that make viewers feel like insiders - Team-centered content that showcases staff personalities - High-quality but authentic videos that don't feel like ads Why is this approach so powerful? Because social media was designed for people-to-people connections, not business-to-consumer transactions. When your content features real team members sharing authentic moments, you're no longer a faceless business—you're a collection of people your audience can connect with. The most successful hospitality brands in the next decade won't just treat social media as a branding exercise… They'll recognize it as the foundation of their entire guest acquisition strategy. Ember's success isn't just a restaurant story. It's a blueprint for every hospitality business ready to embrace the media revolution.