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Probability
FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Probabilityisthemeasureofthelikelihoodthataneventwilloccur.[1]Probabilityisquantifiedasanumber
between0and1(where0indicatesimpossibilityand1indicatescertainty).[2][3]Thehighertheprobability
ofanevent,themorecertainwearethattheeventwilloccur.Asimpleexampleisthetossingofafair
(unbiased)coin.Sincethecoinisunbiased,thetwooutcomes("head"and"tail")areequallyprobablethe
probabilityof"head"equalstheprobabilityof"tail."Sincenootheroutcomeispossible,theprobabilityis
1/2(or50%)ofeither"head"or"tail".Inotherwords,theprobabilityof"head"is1outof2outcomesand
theprobabilityof"tail"isalso,1outof2outcomes.
Theseconceptshavebeengivenanaxiomaticmathematicalformalizationinprobabilitytheory(see
probabilityaxioms),whichisusedwidelyinsuchareasofstudyasmathematics,statistics,finance,
gambling,science(inparticularphysics),artificialintelligence/machinelearning,computerscience,game
theory,andphilosophyto,forexample,drawinferencesabouttheexpectedfrequencyofevents.Probability
theoryisalsousedtodescribetheunderlyingmechanicsandregularitiesofcomplexsystems.[4]

Contents
1
2
3
4
5
6

Interpretations
Etymology
History
Theory
Applications
Mathematicaltreatment
6.1 Independentevents
6.2 Mutuallyexclusiveevents
6.3 Notmutuallyexclusiveevents
6.4 Conditionalprobability
6.5 Inverseprobability
6.6 Summaryofprobabilities
7 Relationtorandomness
8 Seealso
9 Notes
10 Bibliography
11 Externallinks

Interpretations
Whendealingwithexperimentsthatarerandomandwelldefinedinapurelytheoreticalsetting(liketossing
afaircoin),probabilitiescanbenumericallydescribedbythenumberofdesiredoutcomesdividedbythe
totalnumberofalloutcomes.Forexample,tossingafaircointwicewillyield"headhead","headtail",
"tailhead",and"tailtail"outcomes.Theprobabilityofgettinganoutcomeof"headhead"is1outof4
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outcomesor1dividedbyfouror1/4(or25%).Whenitcomestopracticalapplicationhowever,thereare
twomajorcompetingcategoriesofprobabilityinterpretations,whoseadherentspossessdifferentviews
aboutthefundamentalnatureofprobability:
1.Objectivistsassignnumberstodescribesomeobjectiveorphysicalstateofaffairs.Themostpopular
versionofobjectiveprobabilityisfrequentistprobability,whichclaimsthattheprobabilityofa
randomeventdenotestherelativefrequencyofoccurrenceofanexperiment'soutcome,when
repeatingtheexperiment.Thisinterpretationconsidersprobabilitytobetherelativefrequency"inthe
longrun"ofoutcomes.[5]Amodificationofthisispropensityprobability,whichinterpretsprobability
asthetendencyofsomeexperimenttoyieldacertainoutcome,evenifitisperformedonlyonce.
2.Subjectivistsassignnumberspersubjectiveprobability,i.e.,asadegreeofbelief.[6]Thedegreeof
beliefhasbeeninterpretedas,"thepriceatwhichyouwouldbuyorsellabetthatpays1unitof
utilityifE,0ifnotE."[7]ThemostpopularversionofsubjectiveprobabilityisBayesianprobability,
whichincludesexpertknowledgeaswellasexperimentaldatatoproduceprobabilities.Theexpert
knowledgeisrepresentedbysome(subjective)priorprobabilitydistribution.Thedataisincorporated
inalikelihoodfunction.Theproductofthepriorandthelikelihood,normalized,resultsinaposterior
probabilitydistributionthatincorporatesalltheinformationknowntodate.[8]Startingfromarbitrary,
subjectiveprobabilitiesforagroupofagents,someBayesiansclaimthatallagentswilleventually
havesufficientlysimilarassessmentsofprobabilities,givenenoughevidence(seeCromwell'srule).

Etymology
ThewordprobabilityderivesfromtheLatinprobabilitas,whichcanalsomean"probity",ameasureofthe
authorityofawitnessinalegalcaseinEurope,andoftencorrelatedwiththewitness'snobility.Inasense,
thisdiffersmuchfromthemodernmeaningofprobability,which,incontrast,isameasureoftheweightof
empiricalevidence,andisarrivedatfrominductivereasoningandstatisticalinference.[9]

History
Thescientificstudyofprobabilityisamoderndevelopmentofmathematics.Gamblingshowsthattherehas
beenaninterestinquantifyingtheideasofprobabilityformillennia,butexactmathematicaldescriptions
arosemuchlater.Therearereasonsofcourse,fortheslowdevelopmentofthemathematicsofprobability.
Whereasgamesofchanceprovidedtheimpetusforthemathematicalstudyofprobability, fundamental
issues arestillobscuredbythesuperstitionsofgamblers.[10]
AccordingtoRichardJeffrey,"Beforethemiddleoftheseventeenthcentury,theterm'probable'(Latin
probabilis)meantapprovable,andwasappliedinthatsense,univocally,toopinionandtoaction.A
probableactionoropinionwasonesuchassensiblepeoplewouldundertakeorhold,inthe
circumstances."[11]However,inlegalcontextsespecially,'probable'couldalsoapplytopropositionsfor
whichtherewasgoodevidence.[12]
ThesixteenthcenturyItalianpolymathGerolamoCardanodemonstratedtheefficacyofdefiningoddsasthe
ratiooffavourabletounfavourableoutcomes(whichimpliesthattheprobabilityofaneventisgivenbythe
ratiooffavourableoutcomestothetotalnumberofpossibleoutcomes[13]).Asidefromtheelementarywork
byCardano,thedoctrineofprobabilitiesdatestothecorrespondenceofPierredeFermatandBlaisePascal
(1654).ChristiaanHuygens(1657)gavetheearliestknownscientifictreatmentofthesubject.[14]Jakob
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Bernoulli'sArsConjectandi(posthumous,1713)andAbrahamdeMoivre's
DoctrineofChances(1718)treatedthesubjectasabranchofmathematics.[15]
SeeIanHacking'sTheEmergenceofProbability[9]andJamesFranklin'sThe
ScienceofConjecture[16]forhistoriesoftheearlydevelopmentofthevery
conceptofmathematicalprobability.
ThetheoryoferrorsmaybetracedbacktoRogerCotes'sOperaMiscellanea
(posthumous,1722),butamemoirpreparedbyThomasSimpsonin1755
(printed1756)firstappliedthetheorytothediscussionoferrorsofobservation.
Thereprint(1757)ofthismemoirlaysdowntheaxiomsthatpositiveand
negativeerrorsareequallyprobable,andthatcertainassignablelimitsdefinethe
rangeofallerrors.Simpsonalsodiscussescontinuouserrorsanddescribesa
probabilitycurve.
ThefirsttwolawsoferrorthatwereproposedbothoriginatedwithPierreSimon
Laplace.Thefirstlawwaspublishedin1774andstatedthatthefrequencyofan
errorcouldbeexpressedasanexponentialfunctionofthenumericalmagnitude
oftheerror,disregardingsign.Thesecondlawoferrorwasproposedin1778by
Laplaceandstatedthatthefrequencyoftheerrorisanexponentialfunctionof
thesquareoftheerror.[17]Thesecondlawoferroriscalledthenormal
distributionortheGausslaw."Itisdifficulthistoricallytoattributethatlawto
Gauss,whoinspiteofhiswellknownprecocityhadprobablynotmadethis
discoverybeforehewastwoyearsold."[17]

ChristiaanHuygens
probablypublishedthe
firstbookon
probability

DanielBernoulli(1778)introducedtheprincipleofthemaximumproductofthe
probabilitiesofasystemofconcurrenterrors.
AdrienMarieLegendre(1805)developedthemethodofleastsquares,and
introduceditinhisNouvellesmthodespourladterminationdesorbitesdes
comtes(NewMethodsforDeterminingtheOrbitsofComets).[18]Inignorance
ofLegendre'scontribution,anIrishAmericanwriter,RobertAdrain,editorof
"TheAnalyst"(1808),firstdeducedthelawoffacilityoferror,

GerolamoCardano

where isaconstantdependingonprecisionofobservation,and isascale

factorensuringthattheareaunderthecurveequals1.Hegavetwoproofs,the
secondbeingessentiallythesameasJohnHerschel's(1850).Gaussgavethefirst
proofthatseemstohavebeenknowninEurope(thethirdafterAdrain's)in1809.
FurtherproofsweregivenbyLaplace(1810,1812),Gauss(1823),JamesIvory
CarlFriedrichGauss
(1825,1826),Hagen(1837),FriedrichBessel(1838),W.F.Donkin(1844,1856),
andMorganCrofton(1870).OthercontributorswereEllis(1844),DeMorgan
(1864),Glaisher(1872),andGiovanniSchiaparelli(1875).Peters's(1856)formulaforr,theprobableerror
ofasingleobservation,iswellknown.

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InthenineteenthcenturyauthorsonthegeneraltheoryincludedLaplace,SylvestreLacroix(1816),Littrow
(1833),AdolpheQuetelet(1853),RichardDedekind(1860),Helmert(1872),HermannLaurent(1873),
Liagre,Didion,andKarlPearson.AugustusDeMorganandGeorgeBooleimprovedtheexpositionofthe
theory.
AndreyMarkovintroduced[19]thenotionofMarkovchains(1906),whichplayedanimportantrolein
stochasticprocessestheoryanditsapplications.Themoderntheoryofprobabilitybasedonthemeasure
theorywasdevelopedbyAndreyKolmogorov(1931).[20]
Onthegeometricside(seeintegralgeometry)contributorstoTheEducationalTimeswereinfluential
(Miller,Crofton,McColl,Wolstenholme,Watson,andArtemasMartin).

Theory
Likeothertheories,thetheoryofprobabilityisarepresentationofprobabilisticconceptsinformalterms
thatis,intermsthatcanbeconsideredseparatelyfromtheirmeaning.Theseformaltermsaremanipulated
bytherulesofmathematicsandlogic,andanyresultsareinterpretedortranslatedbackintotheproblem
domain.
Therehavebeenatleasttwosuccessfulattemptstoformalizeprobability,namelytheKolmogorov
formulationandtheCoxformulation.InKolmogorov'sformulation(seeprobabilityspace),setsare
interpretedaseventsandprobabilityitselfasameasureonaclassofsets.InCox'stheorem,probabilityis
takenasaprimitive(thatis,notfurtheranalyzed)andtheemphasisisonconstructingaconsistent
assignmentofprobabilityvaluestopropositions.Inbothcases,thelawsofprobabilityarethesame,except
fortechnicaldetails.
Thereareothermethodsforquantifyinguncertainty,suchastheDempsterShafertheoryorpossibility
theory,butthoseareessentiallydifferentandnotcompatiblewiththelawsofprobabilityasusually
understood.

Applications
Probabilitytheoryisappliedineverydaylifeinriskassessmentandintradeonfinancialmarkets.
Governmentsapplyprobabilisticmethodsinenvironmentalregulation,whereitiscalledpathwayanalysis.
AgoodexampleistheeffectoftheperceivedprobabilityofanywidespreadMiddleEastconflictonoil
priceswhichhaverippleeffectsintheeconomyasawhole.Anassessmentbyacommoditytraderthata
warismorelikelyvs.lesslikelysendspricesupordown,andsignalsothertradersofthatopinion.
Accordingly,theprobabilitiesareneitherassessedindependentlynornecessarilyveryrationally.Thetheory
ofbehavioralfinanceemergedtodescribetheeffectofsuchgroupthinkonpricing,onpolicy,andonpeace
andconflict.[21]
Inadditiontofinancialassessment,probabilitycanbeusedtoanalyzetrendsinbiology(e.g.diseasespread)
aswellasecology(e.g.biologicalPunnettsquares).Aswithfinance,riskassessmentcanbeusedasa
statisticaltooltocalculatethelikelihoodofundesirableeventsoccurringandcanassistwithimplementing
protocolstoavoidencounteringsuchcircumstances.

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Thediscoveryofrigorousmethodstoassessandcombineprobabilityassessmentshaschangedsociety.Itis
importantformostcitizenstounderstandhowprobabilityassessmentsaremade,andhowtheycontributeto
decisions.
Anothersignificantapplicationofprobabilitytheoryineverydaylifeisreliability.Manyconsumer
products,suchasautomobilesandconsumerelectronics,usereliabilitytheoryinproductdesigntoreduce
theprobabilityoffailure.Failureprobabilitymayinfluenceamanufacturer'sdecisionsonaproduct's
warranty.[22]
Thecachelanguagemodelandotherstatisticallanguagemodelsthatareusedinnaturallanguage
processingarealsoexamplesofapplicationsofprobabilitytheory.

Mathematicaltreatment
Consideranexperimentthatcanproduceanumberofresults.Thecollectionofallpossibleresultsiscalled
thesamplespaceoftheexperiment.Thepowersetofthesamplespaceisformedbyconsideringall
differentcollectionsofpossibleresults.Forexample,rollingadicecanproducesixpossibleresults.One
collectionofpossibleresultsgivesanoddnumberonthedice.Thus,thesubset{1,3,5}isanelementofthe
powersetofthesamplespaceofdicerolls.Thesecollectionsarecalled"events."Inthiscase,{1,3,5}isthe
eventthatthedicefallsonsomeoddnumber.Iftheresultsthatactuallyoccurfallinagivenevent,theevent
issaidtohaveoccurred.
Aprobabilityisawayofassigningeveryeventavaluebetweenzeroandone,withtherequirementthatthe
eventmadeupofallpossibleresults(inourexample,theevent{1,2,3,4,5,6})isassignedavalueofone.To
qualifyasaprobability,theassignmentofvaluesmustsatisfytherequirementthatifyoulookatacollection
ofmutuallyexclusiveevents(eventswithnocommonresults,e.g.,theevents{1,6},{3},and{2,4}areall
mutuallyexclusive),theprobabilitythatatleastoneoftheeventswilloccurisgivenbythesumofthe
probabilitiesofalltheindividualevents.[23]
TheprobabilityofaneventAiswrittenas
,
,or
.[24]Thismathematicaldefinitionof
probabilitycanextendtoinfinitesamplespaces,andevenuncountablesamplespaces,usingtheconceptof
ameasure.
TheoppositeorcomplementofaneventAistheevent[notA](thatis,theeventofAnotoccurring),often
denotedas
,or
itsprobabilityisgivenbyP(notA)=1P(A).[25]Asanexample,the
chanceofnotrollingasixonasixsideddieis1(chanceofrollingasix)
.See
Complementaryeventforamorecompletetreatment.
IftwoeventsAandBoccuronasingleperformanceofanexperiment,thisiscalledtheintersectionorjoint
probabilityofAandB,denotedas
.

Independentevents
Iftwoevents,AandBareindependentthenthejointprobabilityis

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forexample,iftwocoinsareflippedthechanceofbothbeingheadsis

.[26]

Mutuallyexclusiveevents
IfeithereventAoreventBoccursonasingleperformanceofanexperimentthisiscalledtheunionofthe
eventsAandBdenotedas
.Iftwoeventsaremutuallyexclusivethentheprobabilityofeither
occurringis

Forexample,thechanceofrollinga1or2onasixsideddieis

Notmutuallyexclusiveevents
Iftheeventsarenotmutuallyexclusivethen

Forexample,whendrawingasinglecardatrandomfromaregulardeckofcards,thechanceofgettinga
heartorafacecard(J,Q,K)(oronethatisboth)is
,becauseofthe52cardsofadeck
13arehearts,12arefacecards,and3areboth:herethepossibilitiesincludedinthe"3thatareboth"are
includedineachofthe"13hearts"andthe"12facecards"butshouldonlybecountedonce.

Conditionalprobability
ConditionalprobabilityistheprobabilityofsomeeventA,giventheoccurrenceofsomeothereventB.
Conditionalprobabilityiswritten
,andisread"theprobabilityofA,givenB".Itisdefinedby[27]

If
then
isformallyundefinedbythisexpression.However,itispossibletodefine
aconditionalprobabilityforsomezeroprobabilityeventsusingaalgebraofsuchevents(suchasthose
arisingfromacontinuousrandomvariable).
Forexample,inabagof2redballsand2blueballs(4ballsintotal),theprobabilityoftakingaredballis
however,whentakingasecondball,theprobabilityofitbeingeitheraredballorablueballdepends
ontheballpreviouslytaken,suchas,ifaredballwastaken,theprobabilityofpickingaredballagain
wouldbe
sinceonly1redand2blueballswouldhavebeenremaining.

Inverseprobability
Inprobabilitytheoryandapplications,Bayes'rulerelatestheoddsofevent toevent ,before(prior
to)andafter(posteriorto)conditioningonanotherevent .Theoddson toevent issimplytheratio
oftheprobabilitiesofthetwoevents.Whenarbitrarilymanyevents areofinterest,notjusttwo,therule
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canberephrasedasposteriorisproportionaltopriortimeslikelihood,
wheretheproportionalitysymbolmeansthatthelefthandsideisproportionalto(i.e.,equalsaconstant
times)therighthandsideas varies,forfixedorgiven (Lee,2012BertschMcGrayne,2012).Inthis
formitgoesbacktoLaplace(1774)andtoCournot(1843)seeFienberg(2005).SeeInverseprobability
andBayes'rule.

Summaryofprobabilities
Event

Summaryofprobabilities
Probability

A
notA
AorB
AandB
AgivenB

Relationtorandomness
Inadeterministicuniverse,basedonNewtonianconcepts,therewouldbenoprobabilityifallconditions
wereknown(Laplace'sdemon),(buttherearesituationsinwhichsensitivitytoinitialconditionsexceeds
ourabilitytomeasurethem,i.e.knowthem).Inthecaseofaroulettewheel,iftheforceofthehandandthe
periodofthatforceareknown,thenumberonwhichtheballwillstopwouldbeacertainty(thoughasa
practicalmatter,thiswouldlikelybetrueonlyofaroulettewheelthathadnotbeenexactlylevelledas
ThomasA.Bass'NewtonianCasinorevealed).Ofcourse,thisalsoassumesknowledgeofinertiaand
frictionofthewheel,weight,smoothnessandroundnessoftheball,variationsinhandspeedduringthe
turningandsoforth.AprobabilisticdescriptioncanthusbemoreusefulthanNewtonianmechanicsfor
analyzingthepatternofoutcomesofrepeatedrollsofaroulettewheel.Physicistsfacethesamesituationin
kinetictheoryofgases,wherethesystem,whiledeterministicinprinciple,issocomplex(withthenumber
ofmoleculestypicallytheorderofmagnitudeofAvogadroconstant6.021023)thatonlyastatistical
descriptionofitspropertiesisfeasible.
Probabilitytheoryisrequiredtodescribequantumphenomena.[28]Arevolutionarydiscoveryofearly20th
centuryphysicswastherandomcharacterofallphysicalprocessesthatoccuratsubatomicscalesandare
governedbythelawsofquantummechanics.Theobjectivewavefunctionevolvesdeterministicallybut,
accordingtotheCopenhageninterpretation,itdealswithprobabilitiesofobserving,theoutcomebeing
explainedbyawavefunctioncollapsewhenanobservationismade.However,thelossofdeterminismfor
thesakeofinstrumentalismdidnotmeetwithuniversalapproval.AlbertEinsteinfamouslyremarkedina
lettertoMaxBorn:"IamconvincedthatGoddoesnotplaydice".[29]LikeEinstein,ErwinSchrdinger,

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whodiscoveredthewavefunction,believedquantummechanicsisastatisticalapproximationofan
underlyingdeterministicreality.[30]Inmoderninterpretations,quantumdecoherenceaccountsfor
subjectivelyprobabilisticbehavior.

Seealso
Chance(disambiguation)
Classmembershipprobabilities
Equiprobability
Heuristicsinjudgmentanddecisionmaking
Probabilitytheory
Statistics
Estimators
EstimationTheory
Probabilitydensityfunction
InLaw
Balanceofprobabilities

Notes
1."Probability"(http://wayback.archive.org/web/20150428142545/http://machaut.uchicago.edu/?
resource=Webster%27s&word=probability&use1913=on).Webster'sRevisedUnabridgedDictionary.G&C
Merriam,1913
2."Kendall'sAdvancedTheoryofStatistics,Volume1:DistributionTheory",AlanStuartandKeithOrd,6thEd,
(2009),ISBN9780534243128
3.WilliamFeller,"AnIntroductiontoProbabilityTheoryandItsApplications",(Vol1),3rdEd,(1968),Wiley
,ISBN0471257087
4.ProbabilityTheory(http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/477530/probabilitytheory)TheBritannica
website
5.Hacking,Ian(1965).TheLogicofStatisticalInference.CambridgeUniversityPress.ISBN0521051657.
6.Finetti,Brunode(1970)."Logicalfoundationsandmeasurementofsubjectiveprobability".ActaPsychologica
34:129145.doi:10.1016/00016918(70)900120.
7.Hjek,Alan."InterpretationsofProbability".TheStanfordEncyclopediaofPhilosophy(Winter2012Edition),
EdwardN.Zalta(ed.).Retrieved22April2013.
8.Hogg,RobertV.Craig,AllenMcKean,JosephW.(2004).IntroductiontoMathematicalStatistics(6thed.).
UpperSaddleRiver:Pearson.ISBN0130085073.
9.Hacking,I.(2006)TheEmergenceofProbability:APhilosophicalStudyofEarlyIdeasaboutProbability,
InductionandStatisticalInference,CambridgeUniversityPress,ISBN9780521685573
10.Freund,John.(1973)IntroductiontoProbability.DickensonISBN9780822100782(p.1)
11.Jeffrey,R.C.,ProbabilityandtheArtofJudgment,CambridgeUniversityPress.(1992).pp.5455.ISBN0
521394597
12.Franklin,J.(2001)TheScienceofConjecture:EvidenceandProbabilityBeforePascal,JohnsHopkins
UniversityPress.(pp.22,113,127)
13.SomelawsandproblemsinclassicalprobabilityandhowCardanoanticipatedthemGorrochum,P.Chance
magazine2012(http://www.columbia.edu/~pg2113/index_files/GorroochurnSome%20Laws.pdf)
14.Abrams,William,ABriefHistoryofProbability,SecondMoment,retrieved20080523
15.Ivancevic,VladimirG.Ivancevic,TijanaT.(2008).Quantumleap:fromDiracandFeynman,acrossthe
universe,tohumanbodyandmind.SingaporeHackensack,NJ:WorldScientific.p.16.ISBN978981281927
7.
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16.Franklin,James(2001).TheScienceofConjecture:EvidenceandProbabilityBeforePascal.JohnsHopkins
UniversityPress.ISBN0801865697.
17.WilsonEB(1923)"Firstandsecondlawsoferror".JournaloftheAmericanStatisticalAssociation,18,143
18.Seneta,EugeneWilliam." "AdrienMarieLegendre"(version9)".StatProb:TheEncyclopediaSponsoredby
StatisticsandProbabilitySocieties.Retrieved27January2016.
19.http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~rrw1/markov/M.pdf
20.Vitanyi,PaulM.B.(1988)."AndreiNikolaevichKolmogorov".CWIQuarterly(1):318.Retrieved27January
2016.
21.Singh,Laurie(2010)"WhitherEfficientMarkets?EfficientMarketTheoryandBehavioralFinance".TheFinance
Professionals'Post,2010.
22.Gorman,Michael(2011)"ManagementInsights".ManagementScience
23.Ross,Sheldon.AFirstcourseinProbability,8thEdition.Page2627.
24.Olofsson(2005)Page8.
25.Olofsson(2005),page9
26.Olofsson(2005)page35.
27.Olofsson(2005)page29.
28.Burgi,Mark(2010)"InterpretationsofNegativeProbabilities",p.1.arXiv:1008.1287v1
29.Jedenfallsbinichberzeugt,daderAltenichtwrfelt.LettertoMaxBorn,4December1926,in:Einstein/Born
Briefwechsel19161955(https://books.google.com/books?id=LQIsAQAAIAAJ&q=achtunggebietend).
30.Moore,W.J.(1992).Schrdinger:LifeandThought.CambridgeUniversityPress.p.479.ISBN0521437679.

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Olofsson,Peter(2005)Probability,Statistics,andStochasticProcesses,WileyInterscience.504pp
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Categories: Probability Probabilityandstatistics Dimensionlessnumbers
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apply.Byusingthissite,youagreetotheTermsofUseandPrivacyPolicy.Wikipediaisa
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