Index

S.No Topic Name Page no

1 Application of Derivatives 1-19
2 Probability 20-33
3 Determinants 34-61
Probability

1. Introduction:
The area of mathematics known as probability examines the likelihood of any given occurrence
or experiment's outcome. The potential outcome of any occurrence is stated in a classic way by
classical probability. Statistical probability, on the other hand, deals with the laws that control
random events as well as the gathering, analysing, interpreting, and displaying of data related
to them. To put it another way, the odds of each conceivable occurrence are equal with a
classical probability. A dice throw, for instance, has a 50–50% probability of producing an even
or odd number. In a similar vein, there is an equal chance of receiving a head or a tail when we
flip a coin. Thus, the most straightforward and intelligible type of probability is classical
probability.

1.1 Basic terminology of Probability

Random Experiment

An experiment whose result cannot be predicted, until it is noticed is called a random

experiment. For example, when we throw a dice randomly, the result is uncertain to us. We can
get any output between 1 to 6. Hence, this experiment is random.

Sample Space

A sample space is the set of all possible results or outcomes of a random experiment. Suppose,
if we have thrown a dice, randomly, then the sample space for this experiment will be all
possible outcomes of throwing a dice, such as;

Sample Space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Impossible and Sure Events

If the probability of occurrence of an event is 0, such an event is called an impossible event and
if the probability of occurrence of an event is 1, it is called a sure event. In other words, the
empty set ϕ is an impossible event and the sample space S is a sure event.

Simple Events

Any event consisting of a single point of the sample space is known as a simple event in
probability. For example, if S = {56 , 78 , 96 , 54 , 89} and E = {78} then E is a simple event.

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Compound Events

Contrary to the simple event, if any event consists of more than one single point of the sample
space then such an event is called a compound event. Considering the same example again, if
S = {56, 78, 96, 54, 89}, E1 = {56, 54}, E2 = {78, 56, 89} then, E1 and E2 represent two
compound events.

Independent Events and Dependent Events

If the occurrence of any event is completely unaffected by the occurrence of any other event,
such events are known as an independent event in probability and the events which are
affected by other events are known as dependent events.

Mutually Exclusive Events

If the occurrence of one event excludes the occurrence of another event, such events are
mutually exclusive events i.e. two events don’t have any common point. For example, if S =
{1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6} and E1, E2 are two events such that E1 consists of numbers less than 3 and
E2 consists of numbers greater than 4.

So, E1 = {1,2} and E2 = {5,6} .

Then, E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive.

Exhaustive Events

A set of events is called exhaustive if all the events together consume the entire sample space.

Complementary Events

For any event E1 there exists another event E1‘which represents the remaining elements of the
sample space S.

E1 = S − E 1 ‘

If a dice is rolled then the sample space S is given as S = {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }. If event

E1 represents all the outcomes which is greater than 4, then E1 = {5, 6} and E1‘ = {1, 2, 3, 4}.

Thus E1‘ is the complement of the event E1.

Similarly, the complement of E1, E2, E3……….En will be represented as E1‘, E2‘,
E3‘……….En‘

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Events Associated with “OR”

If two events E1 and E2 are associated with OR then it means that either E1 or E2 or both. The
union symbol (∪) is used to represent OR in probability.

Thus, the event E1U E2 denotes E1 OR E2.

Events Associated with “AND”

If two events E1 and E2 are associated with AND then it means the intersection of elements
which is common to both the events. The intersection symbol (∩) is used to represent AND in
probability.

Thus, the event E1 ∩ E2 denotes E1 and E2.

1.2 Measure of Probability

It is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. It is expressed as a number between 0 and
1, where:

 0 means the event is impossible.

 1 means the event is certain.
 A probability closer to 0 means the event is unlikely, and closer to 1 means it is more
likely.

Mathematically, the probability of an event E is defined as:

Number of favorable outcomes

P (E) = Total number of possible outcomes

1.3 Elementary Problems of Probability

Problem 1: A coin is thrown 3 times .what is the probability that at least one head is
obtained?
Sol: Sample space = [HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT]
Total number of ways = 2 × 2 × 2 = 8. Fav. Cases = 7
P (A) = 7/8
OR
P (of getting at least one head) = 1 – P (no head)⇒ 1 – (1/8) = 7/8

Problem 2: Find the probability of getting a numbered card when a card is drawn from the
pack of 52 cards.

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Sol: Total Cards = 52. Numbered Cards = (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) 9 from each suit 4 × 9 =
36
P (E) = 36/52 = 9/13

Problem 3: There are 5 green 7 red balls. Two balls are selected one by one without
replacement. Find the probability that first is green and second is red.
Sol: P (G) × P (R) = (5/12) x (7/11) = 35/132

Problem 4: What is the probability of getting a sum of 7 when two dice are thrown?
Sol: Probability math - Total number of ways = 6 × 6 = 36 ways. Favourable cases = (1, 6)
(6, 1) (2, 5) (5, 2) (3, 4) (4, 3) --- 6 ways. P (A) = 6/36 = 1/6

Problem 5: 1 card is drawn at random from the pack of 52 cards.

(i) Find the Probability that it is an honour card.
(ii) It is a face card.
Sol: (i) honor cards = (A, J, Q, K) 4 cards from each suits = 4 × 4 = 16
P (honor card) = 16/52 = 4/13
(ii) face cards = (J, Q, K) 3 cards from each suit = 3 × 4 = 12 Cards.
P (face Card) = 12/52 = 3/13

Problem 6: A bag contains 3 white balls, 4 black balls, and 2 green balls. A ball is drawn
with replacement. Find the probability of getting:
1. A White Ball
2. A Black Ball
3. A Green Ball
Sol:
There are a total of 3 + 4 + 2 = 9 balls.
1. Probability of getting a white ball
Total number of balls = 9,
Favorable outcomes = 3
P(Getting a White Ball) =3/9 = 1/3
2. Probability of getting a Black ball
Total number of balls = 9,
Favorable outcomes = 4
P(Getting a Black Ball) = 4/9
3. Probability of getting a Black ball
Total number of balls = 9,
Favorable outcomes = 2
P(Getting a Green Ball) = 2/9

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1.4 Addition theorem of probability
Statement:
If A and B are any two events then the probability of happening of at least one of the events is defined
as
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)
Proof:
From set theory, we know that,
n(A∪B)=n(A)+n(B)−n(A∩B)
Dividing the above equation by n(S) both sides we have
n(A∪B)/n(S)=n(A)/n(S)+n(B)/n(S)−n(A∩B)/n(S)
P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)(∵P(X)=n(X)/n(S))
Hence proved.

Problem 7: Let’s say we have a well-shuffled deck. We draw two cards and find the
probability of getting either a King or a Queen.
Solution:
Let’s say drawing a king represents an event A while drawing a queen represents an event B.
We are asked for the probability for getting either King or Queen. We will use law of adding
probabilities here,
Probability (King or Queen) = Probability (King) + Probability (Queen)
We know that there are 4 Kings and 4 Queens in the deck.
P(King) = 4/52 = 1/13
P(Queen) = 4/52 = 1/13
Thus,
Probability (King or Queen) = 1/13 + 1/13 = 2/13

Problem 9: We have an urn that contains three black balls, two blue balls, and three white
balls. Find the probability of getting one black, one blue, and one white ball if we draw three
times with replacement.
Solution:
We have a total of eight balls.
P(getting a black ball) = 3/8
P(getting a blue ball) = 2/8
P(getting a white ball) = 3/8
We will find out this probability with law of addition.
So the total probability of getting all three colors = P(Black) + P(Blue) + P(White)

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=3/8 × 2/8 × 3/8
= 18/512
Notice that the probability sums up to one. This is in accordance with laws of probability.

Problem 10: The Union Budget is going to be announced by the government this week.
The probability that it will be announced on a day is given,

Day Probability

Monday 1/7

Tuesday 3/7

Wednesday 1/7

Thursday 1/7

Friday 1/7

Find the probability of the budget getting announced between Mondays to Wednesday.
Solution:
We need to use the probability addition law,
P(Monday to Wednesday) = P(Monday) + P(Tuesday) + P(Wednesday)
P(Monday) = 1/7
P(Tuesday) = 3/7
P(Wednesday) = 1/7
P(Monday to Wednesday) = P(Monday) + P(Tuesday) + P(Wednesday)
= 1/7 + 3/7 + 1/7
= 5/7

Example 11: In a class of 90 students, 50 took Math, 25 took Physics, and 30 took both
Math and Physics. Find the number of students who have taken either math or Physics.
Solution:
Since the events of choosing math and physics are non-mutually exclusive, the second rule
of addition will be applied here,
P(Math ∪ Physics) = P(Math) + P(Physics) – P(Math ∩ Physics)
P(Math) = 50
P(physics) = 25

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P(Math ∩ Physics) = 30
P(Math ∪ Physics) = 50 + 25 – 30
P(Math ∪ Physics) = 45 students.

Example 12: We have an urn that contains three black balls, two blue balls, and three white
balls. Find the probability of getting one black, one blue, and one white ball if we draw three
times with replacement.
Solution:
We have a total of eight balls.
P(getting a black ball) = 3/8
P(getting a blue ball) = 2/8
P(getting a white ball) = 3/8
We will find out this probability with law of addition.
So the total probability of getting all three colors = P(Black) + P(Blue) + P(White)
=3/8 × 2/8 × 3/8
= 18/512
Notice that the probability sums up to one. This is in accordance with laws of probability.

1.5 Conditional probability and independence:

Conditional probability deals with the likelihood of an event occurring given that another
event has already occurred. Independence, on the other hand, refers to situations where the
occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of another event.
Let B be an event with non-zero probability. The conditional probability of any event A given
B is defined as:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
P(A∣B) =
𝑃(𝐵)

In other words, P(A|B) is the probability measure of event A after observing the occurrence
of event B. Two events are called independent if and only if P(A∩B) = P(A).P(B) (or
equivalently, P(A|B) = P(A)). Therefore, independence is equivalent to saying that observing
B does not have any effect on the probability of A.

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1.6 Multiplication theorem on Probability for two events
Statement:
According to the multiplication rule of probability, the probability of occurrence of both the
events A and B is equal to the product of the probability of B occurring and the conditional
probability that event A occurring given that event B occurs.

If A and B are dependent events, then the probability of both events occurring simultaneously
is given by:

P(A ∩ B) = P(B) . P(A|B)

Proof: We know that the conditional probability of event A given that B has occurred is
denoted by P(A|B) and is given by:

𝑃(𝐴∩B)
P(A|B) =
p(B)

Where, P(B)≠0

P(A∩B) = P(B)×P(A|B) ……………………………………..(1)

𝑃(𝐴∩B)
P(B|A) =
p(A)

Where, P(A) ≠ 0.

P(B∩A) = P(A)×P(B|A)

Since, P(A∩B) = P(B∩A)

P(A∩B) = P(A)×P(B|A) ………………………………………(2)

From (1) and (2), we get:

P(A∩B) = P(B)×P(A|B) = P(A)×P(B|A) where,

P(A) ≠ 0,P(B) ≠ 0.

The above result is known as the multiplication rule of probability.

For independent events A and B, P(B|A) = P(B). The equation (2) can be modified into,

P(A∩B) = P(B) × P(A)

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Problem 13: A coin is flipped twice. Let A be the event that both flip land on heads and let
B be the event that at least one flip lands on heads.
Solution:
Sample space of an experiment or random trial is the set of all possible outcomes or results
of that experiment. Here ‘S’ denotes the sample space.
S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
P(A∩B) = 1 / 4 = 0.25
P(B) = 3 / 4 = 0.75
Applying formula:
P(A∩B) 0.25
P(B∣A) = = 0.75 = 0.33
𝑃(𝐴)

Problem 14: In a group of 100 sports car buyers, 40 bought alarm systems, 30 purchased
bucket seats, and 20 purchased an alarm system and bucket seats. If a car buyer chosen at
random bought an alarm system, what is the probability they also bought bucket seats?
Solution:
Let’s say event of buying alarm system as alarm and event of buying bucket seats as bucket.

P(alarm) = 40 / 100 = 0.4

P(alarm ∩ bucket) = 0.2

Applying formula: P(A|B) = P(A∩B) / P(B)

Here we have the probability of alarm systems. and have to find out the probability of bucket
seats. Hence, Putting the probabilities into the formula.
𝑝 (𝑏𝑢𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑡 ∩alarm) 0.4
P(bucket ∣ alarm)= = 0.2 = 0.5
p(Alarm)

Problem 15: There are 2 red shirts, 4 blue shirts, and 9 white shirts in a basket. Two shirts
are randomly selected. Find the probability that the second shirt is red given that the first shirt
is blue. (Assume that the first chip is not replaced).
Solution:
Step 1: Determine the total number of shirts in the basket:
 Total shirts = 2 red shirts + 4 blue shirts + 9 white shirts = 15 shirts
Step 2: Determine the probability of selecting a blue shirt as the first shirt:
 Probability of selecting a blue shirt = Number of blue shirts / Total shirts = 4 / 15
Step 3: Determine the number of shirts remaining after the first blue shirt is selected:

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 After selecting a blue shirt, there are now 3 blue shirts remaining, 2 red shirts, and 9 white
shirts. Total remaining shirts = 3 + 2 + 9 = 14 shirts.
Step 4: Determine the number of red shirts remaining after the first blue shirt is selected:
 There are 2 red shirts remaining.
Step 5: Determine the probability of selecting a red shirt as the second shirt, given that the
first shirt is blue:
 Probability of selecting a red shirt as the second shirt = Number of red shirts remaining /
Total remaining shirts
 Probability of selecting a red shirt as the second shirt = 2 / 14
Therefore, the correct probability that the second shirt is red, given that the first shirt is blue,
is 2/14, which simplifies to 1/7.

1.7 Bayes Theorem Statement

Let E1, E2,…, En be a set of events associated with a sample space S, where all the events E1,
E2,…, En have non zero probability of occurrence and they form a partition of S. Let A be any
event associated with S, then according to Bayes theorem,

p(Ei)𝑝(A |𝐸𝑖)
P(Ei│A) = ∑ 𝑝(𝐸𝑖)𝑝(A |𝐸𝑖)

for any i = 1, 2, 3, …., n

Proof

According to the conditional probability formula,

P(Ei∩A)
P(Ei│A) = P(A)
…(1)

Using the multiplication rule of probability,

P(Ei∩A) = P(Ei).P(A│Ei) …(2)

Using total probability theorem,

P(A) = P(A∩E1) U P(A∩E1) U P(A∩E1) U …… U P(A∩E1)

Here E1, E2,…..En are mutually Exclusive events

P(A) = P(E1)P(A/E1) + P(E2)P(A/E2) + ......P(En)P(A/En) …(3)

= ∑ 𝑝(𝐸𝑖 )𝑝(A |𝐸𝑖)

Putting the values from equations (2) and (3) in equation 1, we get

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p(Ei)𝑝(A |𝐸𝑖)
P(Ei│A) = ∑ 𝑝(𝐸𝑖)𝑝(A |𝐸𝑖)

Hence Proved

Note: The following terminologies are also used when the Bayes theorem is applied:

Hypotheses: The events E1, E2,… En is called the hypotheses

Priori Probability: The probability P(Ei) is considered as the priori probability of hypothesis
Ei

Posteriori Probability: The probability P(Ei|A) is considered as the posteriori probability of

hypothesis Ei

Problem 16:
A bag I contains 4 white and 6 black balls while another Bag II contains 4 white and 3 black
balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags, and it is found to be black. Find the
probability that it was drawn from Bag I.

Solution:

Let E1 be the event of choosing bag I, E2 the event of choosing bag II, and A be the event of
drawing a black ball.

Then,

1
P(E1) = P(E2) = 2

Also, P(A|E1) = P(drawing a black ball from Bag I) = 6/10 = 3/5

P(A|E2) = P(drawing a black ball from Bag II) = 3/7

By using Bayes’ theorem, the probability of drawing a black ball from bag I out of two bags,

1 3
P(E1)P(A│E1) ∗ 7
2 5
P(E1|A) = =1 3 1 3 = 12
P(E1)P(A│E1)+P(E2)P(A|E2) ∗ + ∗
2 5 2 7

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Problem 17:
A man is known to speak the truth 2 out of 3 times. He throws a die and reports that the
number obtained is a four. Find the probability that the number obtained is actually a four.

Solution:

Let A be the event that the man reports that number four is obtained.

Let E1 be the event that four is obtained and E2 be its complementary event.

Then, P(E1) = Probability that four occurs = 1/6.

P(E2) = Probability that four does not occur = 1- P(E1) = 1 – (1/6) = 5/6.

Also, P(A|E1)= Probability that man reports four and it is actually a four = 2/3

P(A|E2) = Probability that man reports four and it is not a four = 1/3.

By using Bayes’ theorem, probability that number obtained is actually a four,

1 2
P(E1)P(A|E1) ∗
6 3 2
P(E1|A) = P(E1)P(A|E1)+ P(E1)P(A|E1) = 1 2 5 1 =7
∗ + ∗
6 3 6 3

Problem 18: Three individuals A, B, and C have applied for a job at a private firm. Their
chances of selection are in the ratio 1:2:4. The probabilities that A, B, and C can bring about
changes to boost the company's profits are 0.8, 0.5, and 0.3, respectively. If the desired change
doesn't occur, find the probability that it is due to the appointment of C.

Solution:

Let's denote the following events:

E1: A gets selected

E2: B gets selected

E3: C gets selected

A: Changes were introduced, but no profit occurred

Now, we can calculate the following probabilities:

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P(E1) = 1/(1+2+4) = 1/7

P(E2) = 2/7 and P(E3) = 4/7

P(A|E1) = P(Profit didn't occur due to changes introduced by A) = 1 – P(Profit occurred due to
changes introduced by A) = 1 – 0.8 = 0.2

P(A|E2) = P(Profit didn't occur due to changes introduced by B) = 1 – P(Profit occurred due to
changes introduced by B) = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5

P(A|E3) = P(Profit didn't occur due to changes introduced by C) = 1 – P(Profit occurred due to
changes introduced by C) = 1 – 0.3 = 0.7

We need to find the probability of profit not occurring due to the selection of C.

P(A|E3 ) P(E3)
P(E3/A) = P(A|E1)P(E1)+P(A|E2)P(E2)+P(A|E3)P(E3)

4
0.7∗ 7
7
= 1 2 4 = 10
0.2∗ +0.5∗ +0.7∗
7 7 7

Thus, the required probability is 0.7.

1.8 Exercise questions

1. If P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3, and P(A∩B) = 0.2, find P(A|B).

2. In a class of 50 students, 30 play cricket, 20 play football, and 10 play both. If a student is
selected at random, what is the probability that they play football given that they play cricket?
3. A bag contains 3 red balls and 4 blue balls. Two balls are drawn without replacement.
What is the probability that the second ball is red, given that the first ball was blue?
4. If events A and B are independent, and P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, find P(A∩B).
5. Prove that if A and B are independent events, then A and B’ (complement of B) are also
independent.
6. A fair die is rolled twice. Let A be the event “sum of numbers is 7” and B be the event
“first roll is even”. Are A and B independent?
7. In a survey, 60% of people like product A, 50% like product B, and 30% like both. If a
person is selected at random, what is the probability that they like product A given that they
like product B?
8. If P(A|B) = P(A), what can you conclude about the relationship between events A and B?

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9. A card is drawn from a standard deck. Let A be “drawing a heart” and B be “drawing a
face card”. Are A and B independent?
10. If P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.4, and A and B are independent, find P(A’∪B’).

11. A bag contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its colour is noted, and
again the ball is returned to the bag. Also, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn are put in the
bag. After that, the ball is drawn at random from the bag. What is the probability that the second
ball drawn from the bag is red?

12. Of the students in the college, 60% of the students reside in the hostel and 40% of the
students are day scholars. Previous year results report that 30% of all students who stay in the
hostel scored A Grade and 20% of day scholars scored A grade. At the end of the year, one
student is chosen at random and found that he/she has an A grade. What is the probability that
the student is a hosteler?

13. From the pack of 52 cards, one card is lost. From the remaining cards of a pack, two cards
are drawn and both are found to be diamond cards. What is the probability that the lost card is
a diamond?

1.9 Summary:

In this chapter a student is able to understand concept of probability and definitions of event,
types of events, Conditional probability, independence rule, Bayes rule and relevant examples.

References:

1) Fundamentals of mathematical sciences, S.C. Guptha & V.K.Kapoor, 10th Edition, 2002.

2) Programmed Statistics, B.L.Agarwal, 2nd Edition, 2003

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