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Deck 2 - Probability - Copy (1)

The document provides an overview of probability, distinguishing it from statistics and discussing key concepts such as experiments, outcomes, sample spaces, and events. It covers properties of probability, mutually exclusive events, conditional probability, and introduces factorials, permutations, and combinations. Examples are included to illustrate these concepts and their applications.

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4 views

Deck 2 - Probability - Copy (1)

The document provides an overview of probability, distinguishing it from statistics and discussing key concepts such as experiments, outcomes, sample spaces, and events. It covers properties of probability, mutually exclusive events, conditional probability, and introduces factorials, permutations, and combinations. Examples are included to illustrate these concepts and their applications.

Uploaded by

nithila4140
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability

Professor Turetsky
Deck 2
Probability

2
Probability

• Probability is the basic language of statistics


• Probability vs Statistics
– Probability: “a fair coin is tossed 10 time; what is the probability of getting 8 heads?”
– Statistics: “a coin is tossed 10 times, showing 8 heads; is the coin fair?”
• Origins of probability: card/dice games, gambling

3
Experiments, Outcomes, and Sample Spaces

• An experiment governed by chance has several possible outcomes


• The collection of all possible outcomes in an experiment is the sample space
• Examples
– Tossing a coin
– Rolling a die
– Rolling two dice

4
Events

• Event = a collection of possible outcomes in an experiment


– A selected card is an Ace
– A roll of a die is 5 or higher
• Usually denoted by capital letters
• P(A) = Probability of event A

5
Properties of Probability

• The probability of an event A, P(A) , is a number between 0 and 1 that measures


the likelihood that A will occur.
• 0  P(A)  1 always
• P(A) = 0 means that A is impossible (discrete events)
• P(A) = 1 means that A always happens (discrete events)

6
Mutually Exclusive Events

• Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if, when


one of the two events occur in an experiment, the other
cannot.
• For example, if a fair coin is tossed once, the events T
(Tails) and H (Heads) are mutually exclusive.

7
Mutually Exclusive Events

• Example

– Let A be the event of being dealt an Ace.

– Let B be the event of being dealt a spade.


– Let C be the event of being dealt a heart.
– Let D be the event of being dealt a club.
– Let E be the event of being dealt a diamond.

– Then events B,C,D, and E are mutually exclusive.


– But the events, A and B, A and C, … are not mutually exclusive.

8
Simple Events

• Simple events are mutually exclusive events that represent the most basic
outcomes of an experiment.
• The sample space of an experiment is the collection of all of its simple events.
• For example, if two fair coins are tossed then what are the simple events and
thus what is the sample space?

9
Intersections and Unions

10
Probability Rule #1

11
Probability Rule #2

12
Probability Rule #3

• If we list all possible simple events (sample points)


associated with an experiment, then the sum of their
probabilities is equal to 1. In other words, the probability
of the entire sample space is always 1.

13
Probability Rule #4

14
Conditional Probability

• What is the difference between the following two


problems?

1. What is the probability that the sum of two dice is 5?


2. Given that the first die is less than 3,what is the
probability that the sum of the two dice is equal to 5?

15
Conditional Probability

16
P(A B)

17
P(A B)

A B

18
Example 1

We toss two coins and observe the upper faces of the coins.
• A: Observe at least one head
• B: Observe at least one tail
1. What is the probability that both A and B occur?
2. What is the probability that A or B or both events occur?

19
Example with Sample Space

• You roll two fair dice.


• Let A be the event the sum of two dice is 5.
• Let B be the event the first die is less than 3.
• Let C be the event the sum of two dice is 7.
1.P(A) 2.P(B) 3.P(C)
4. P(A|B) 8. P(C|B)
5. P(A 9. P(C

20
Example 3

21
Example 4
• Choose at random a student from a class of 62 students
Latin
USA Europe Asia Other Total
America
Male 22 5 4 6 3 40

Female 13 3 1 3 2 22

Total 35 8 5 9 5 62

• Find
1. P(European) = ? 4. P(Asian | Female) = ?
2. P(European and Female) = ? 5. P(Male | not European) = ?
3. P(Male or non-USA) = ?

22
Baye’s Theorem

23
Conditional Probability – Example

• Jar A contains 7 red and 3 green marbles; jar B contains 15 red and 30 green.
Flip a fair coin, and select a ball from jar A if tossed heads, or from jar B if
tossed tails. Find
1. P(red | heads) = ?
2. P(red | tails) = ?
3. P(red and heads) = ?
4. P(red and tails) = ?
5. P(red) = ?
6. P(tails | green) = ?

24
Factorials and Permutations

• In how many ways can we place 4 people on a bench?


4321 = 24
• “x factorial” = x! = x(x – 1)(x – 2) …1
• The number of ways we can order x (distinct) elements in a row is x!
• By definition: 0! = 1
• Permutations Example: There are 10 students running for president, vice
president, and treasurer of a new club. How many different leadership teams
exist?

25
Permutations- Examples

• There are 5 messages in your voicemail, from Adams, Berger, Carlton, Davis,
and Edgar, left in a random order.

1. What is the probability that they are in alphabetical order (ABCDE)?


2. What is the probability that Carlton is last?
3. What is the probability that Adams is immediately after Davis?

26
Combinations

• In how many ways can we select a committee of 3 people from a group of 8?

8!
• Answer is:  56
3! (8  3)!
• The number of combinations to choose k elements from a set of n (when order
doesn’t matter) is

n n!
  
 k  k! (n  k)!

27
Combinations – Example

• An investor is considering investing in 5 firms, A, B, C, D, and E.

1. If she chose two firms at random, what is the probability that these are A and B?
2. If she chose three firms at random, what is the probability that E is among them?

28

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